JPMorgan's (JPM) Michele says Bessent has done his best to stabilise the long-end

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JPMorgan's (JPM) Michele says Bessent has done his best to stabilise the long-end

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Context

Comments of this kind from a major fixed income investor about a Treasury chief's stewardship of the long end speak to the issuance debate that has run through recent years: whether heavy reliance on bills at the front end and restraint on coupon supply at the back is genuine stabilisation or merely supply suppression that flattens term premium without addressing the deficit. Buyback programmes and bill-tilted issuance have been the standard toolkit in such episodes, and the historical pattern is that they compress volatility and term premium at the margin while leaving the underlying auction tail risk intact, as weak long-dated auctions have periodically shown. The distinction worth drawing is between endorsement of the technique and endorsement of the fiscal trajectory: praise for stabilisation efforts from a large buyer of duration says little about where yields clear if issuance mix normalises. Michele's desk has form as a vocal duration bull, so the comment reads partly as talking the book. The follow-ons that matter are refunding statements, auction demand metrics at the long end, and whether buyback cadence is expanded or merely maintained.

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