Lufthansa (LHA GY) expects jet fuel prices to rise about 18%, increasing its costs by roughly EUR 1.5bln

The mechanism worth distinguishing is gross exposure versus net: carriers in this peer set hedge on rolling programmes, so a step-change in the crack or the underlying crude benchmark feeds into the P&L with a lag measured in quarters, and the headline figure tends to overstate near-term impact. The offsetting channel is pricing: in past episodes of rising fuel costs, carriers with strong booking momentum have recovered a large share via fares and surcharges, while weaker demand environments have left the cost stuck with the operator, which is why load factors and yield commentary matter more than the fuel number itself. Prior form on this name is that fuel revisions are flagged alongside capacity and hedging disclosure at scheduled results, so the follow-ons are the updated hedge ratios, the demand commentary, and whether peers across the European carrier group strike the same tone. As guidance rather than a print, the signal is directional and sits within the usual cadence of pre-results cost updates.