[MARKET ANALYSIS] Asia-Pac stocks are mixed after the recent drop in oil prices and upside in long-term US yields, while participants digest a slew of data at month- and quarter-end

Month- and quarter-end sessions of this kind have historically been dominated more by positioning and rebalancing flows than by the data itself, with index-level moves tending to overstate the informational content of the prints.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at , 20 minutes before this page
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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Asia-Pac stocks are mixed after the recent drop in oil prices and upside in long-term US yields, while participants digest a slew of data at month- and quarter-end

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY pauses after recent gains, while yen outperforms despite a lack of drivers and is unfazed by weak Japanese data

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APAC Stocks: Mixed

  • Asia-Pac stocks are ultimately mixed following the recent drop in oil prices and upside in long-term US yields, while participants digest a slew of data at month- and quarter-end.

ASX 200: +1.0%

  • Rallied with nearly all sectors in the green and real estate leading the advances as softer-than-expected headline monthly CPI data and a wider contraction in building approvals lessen the odds for an RBA November rate hike.

Nikkei 225: +1.0%

  • Gapped above the 66,000 level with the index shrugging off disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, in which the former showed a surprise contraction.

KOSPI -0.1%

  • Faded initial gains with sentiment not helped by weak data and tensions with North Korea after a DMZ landmine explosion injured three South Korean officers, while South Korea's military stated that North Korea's fortification works increased tensions in the Korean peninsula and that it should apologise for its fortification works.

Hang Seng & Shanghai Comp: Hang Seng Flat / Shanghai Comp +0.3%

  • Chinese markets are somewhat varied, with the Hang Seng indecisive and the mainland mildly underpinned following the encouraging Chinese PMI data, in which headline official Manufacturing PMI matched estimates at 50.1, and Non-Manufacturing topped forecasts at 50.2 (exp. 49.3), while RatingDog Manufacturing and Services PMIs were both stronger-than-expected. In addition, the PBoC recently announced support measures including a 25bps cut to the Pledged Supplementary Lending facility rate to 1.50% from 1.75%, while participants look ahead to the National Day holidays and week-long closure in the mainland beginning tomorrow.

US Equity Futures: Rangebound

  • Price action is rangebound following the mostly subdued performance on Wall St, as long-term yields continued to decline despite a decline in oil prices, while a key US inflation gauge looms.

European Equity Futures +0.7%

  • Indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.7% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Tuesday.
Context

The cross-currents here are the standard ones for the region: falling oil and a softer Australian inflation read work through the rate-sensitive sectors, which is the established pattern when local CPI undershoots, while the long end of the US curve remains the common transmission channel into equity multiples across the region. The China divergence is the familiar split, with mainland indices responding to PMI beats and incremental PBoC easing while the offshore Hang Seng stays hostage to global risk appetite; past episodes of small policy rate adjustments on lending facilities have tended to matter more as a signal of easing bias than as a mechanical stimulus. Korea's underperformance on peninsula tension headlines fits a long-standing pattern in which such incidents produce brief, usually fading risk premiums unless they escalate beyond rhetoric and isolated incidents. The looming mainland holiday closure is worth noting as a liquidity consideration: in past episodes, positioning into the week-long shutdown has compressed volumes and distorted price action in the sessions either side. The next data sensitivity sits with the US inflation print, which has been the binding constraint on the regional rates and equity narrative.

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