[MARKET ANALYSIS] Asia-Pac stocks mixed as tech selling weighs on Japan and Korea; US futures rebound

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Asia-Pac stocks mixed as tech selling weighs on Japan and Korea; US futures rebound

China's Stats Bureau said the economy showed more positive developments in Jan-Sept, although weak demand and a complex international environment remain challenges

Chinese GDP Growth Rate (Q3 YY) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 4.3%)

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APAC Stocks: Mixed

Asia-Pac stocks are mixed following Friday's tech-led sell-off on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq fell 2.1% amid renewed concerns over AI financing and high oil prices. Japanese and Korean stocks bore the brunt of the initial selling but have since pared losses, while US futures are recovering overnight as crude prices retreat. On the geopolitical front, Trump said on Truth Social that significant progress was being made towards ending the Russia-Ukraine war and signed an executive order waiving certain sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy. Further, Russian President Putin has proposed a meeting with US President Trump and Chinese President Xi next month to discuss ending the Ukraine war. Elsewhere, Chinese activity data topped expectations across the board but prompted little reaction.

ASX 200: +0.2%

  • Bucks the regional weakness with modest gains despite the negative handover from Wall Street, with Cleanaway Waste Management surging 20% after EQT agreed to acquire the Co. Elsewhere, RBA's Kent noted that there is reasonable evidence of rising neutral interest rates in Australia and abroad.

Nikkei 225: -1.3%

  • Remains pressured as Japanese tech stocks play catch-up to Friday's losses in their US counterparts, although the index has pared earlier losses of over 2%. BoJ Governor Ueda also spoke overnight but didn't add anything fresh.

KOSPI: -0.5%

  • Also suffered from the recent selling in US semiconductor and AI-related stocks, although the index has recovered considerably after declining as much as 2.7% at the open in tandem with the rebound across US equity futures.

Shanghai -0.5%

  • Mainland Chinese stocks are softer despite better-than-expected activity data, with Q3 GDP growing 4.5% Y/Y (exp. 4.4%, prev. 4.3%), while Industrial Production rose 5.5% Y/Y (exp. 5.4%) and Retail Sales increased 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 0.5%). Unemployment also eased to 5.2% (exp. 5.3%), although Fixed Asset Investment remained weak at -7.2% Y/Y YTD. Hang Seng meanwhile was shut amid the Chung Yeung Festival.

US Equity Futures: ES +0.5% / NQ +0.8%

  • Rebound following Friday's tech-led losses, with the Nasdaq outperforming amid the pullback in crude prices. Trump's latest efforts towards a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and his decision to ease restrictions on Russian energy also provide some relief.

European Equity Futures: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3% / DAX -0.3%

  • Indicate a softer cash market open despite the recovery in US futures, with sentiment also dampened by widespread cost-of-living protests across Europe over the weekend, particularly in France.

Context

Overnight wraps of this kind, where Asian bourses play catch-up to a prior US tech-led decline, tend to resolve within the session as US futures stabilise, and the pattern here fits: the Nikkei and KOSPI pared steep opening losses in tandem with the ES and NQ rebound, with crude's retreat doing much of the work. The AI-financing concern driving the selling is the more durable thread, since episodes built on capex and funding doubts rather than earnings misses have historically resurfaced around the next round of results or guidance rather than fading on a single rebound. The Russian energy sanctions waiver is the more consequential development, easing supply-side risk premia in crude and compressing the energy-driven inflation tail that had been feeding front-end rate pricing. China's activity beats drawing no reaction is itself the tell: mainland equities have repeatedly treated data upside as non-actionable while property-linked investment remains deeply negative, leaving sentiment hostage to policy rather than prints. RBA Kent's neutral-rate comments are the kind of communication that gradually re-anchors the back end of the Australian curve rather than repricing it at once. Worth noting is the divergence between recovering US futures and softer European opens, with the cost-of-living protests adding a domestic political drag to the latter.

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