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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Bonds hold a bearish bias, continuing the pressure seen in the prior session

Bonds are under pressure today, reflecting a bearish sentiment driven by stronger-than-expected US data and rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Bonds hold a bearish bias, continuing the pressure seen in the prior session

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Spain sells EUR 5.43bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 3.50% 2029, 2.60% 2031 and 3.30% 2036 Bono

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  • USTs are lower by a handful of ticks this morning, and currently trade within a 112-24+ to 112-31 range. Moved lower for much of the morning, before picking up a touch as US/European equity futures dipped lower.
  • The bearish bias follows on from; a) the prior day’s stronger-than-expected US data, b) rising energy prices (spurred by geopolitical tensions), c) JGB pressure overnight, following strong Machine Tool Orders and a weak 20yr JGB auction, d) a poor 20yr auction; on the latter point, desks highlight that the 20yr has historically not been the markets favoured outing. On the geopolitical narrative, there have been continued reports that the US is upping its presence in Iran, with a US Senior Official telling Axios that US-Iran talks have been a “nothing burger”, and that is why POTUS is close to deciding on the issue of going to war with Iran. As it stands, US paper appears to be pricing in the inflationary impacts (higher oil prices), but an outright attack could lead to some haven-related demand.
  • Finally, the FOMC Minutes released in the prior session were mixed. It showed that views diverged on the path ahead as several indicated further cuts would likely be appropriate if disinflation progresses as expected, whereas others judged easing should await clearer evidence that inflation is firmly returning to target.
  • Bunds are also pressured alongside global peers. Currently holds towards the lower end of a 129.05 to 129.31 range. Newsflow for German paper is lacking today, aside from ECB-related reporting. Source reports suggest that President Lagarde told her colleagues that she would tell them before she leaves; her colleagues reportedly interpreted this to mean her departure is not immediate, but the door is not closed. De Cos and Knot have been touted as potential replacements once President Lagarde leaves her role, though Rabobank cautions that the process is highly political and difficult to predict, noting markets should largely ignore speculation for now.
  • Gilts are trading in-fitting with peers, and trading around the 92.00 mark within a 91.96 to 92.03 range. UK data slate has paused for today, ahead of Retail Sales/PMIs on Friday. This follows on from dovish jobs/wages and mixed inflation metrics earlier this week, which confirmed the disinflation process but Services and Core topped-expectations, leaving the more hawkish MPC members cautious. Markets are currently torn between a cut in March or April; analysts at ING see a cut in March and then another by June.
Context

The mixed FOMC minutes indicate a divided view among members regarding future rate cuts, which adds uncertainty to the fixed income landscape. This bearish bias in USTs, Bunds, and Gilts suggests that markets are currently pricing in inflationary risks and potential defensive demand if geopolitical tensions escalate further.

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