[MARKET ANALYSIS] Buck firms and high yielders resilient; EUR looks to Le Pen ruling, GBP awaits BoE FSR

G10s are mostly weaker against the Buck, which attempts to return to levels made on Monday above 101 in DXY. Carry continues to be a theme today as it was on Monday, with high-yielders NOK, GBP flat against the Buck and low yielders underperforming (bar JPY, which is boosted on intervention fears).
GBP is flat against the EUR and Buck with the absence of catalysts giving no bias to the currency today. Some political news overnight incl. reports that likely incoming PM Burnham is considering delaying the announcement of his chancellor until the day he is expected to become PM (potentially 20th July). No reaction seen to the article but Sterling traders remain in the dark on his major policies, especially with another U-turn also overnight (reportedly decided not to split the Treasury). The calendar highlight for GBP today is the BoE FSR which will be closely monitored for whether the BoE removes gilts from its Leverage Exposure Measure; which in short, could boost gilt demand. ING opines, if this is delivered, the move could send EUR/GBP through support at 0.8545 towards 0.85.
Elsewhere on politics, EUR looks to the Paris Appeals Court ruling on Le Pen’s misappropriation scandal where she is expected to announce at 19:00BST whether she or Jordan Bardella will run in the 2027 French Presidential election as the candidate for National Rally (RN). To recap stances, POLITICO writes “Bardella appears more of a traditional economic right-winger”. While Le Pen has a “mix of right-wing nationalism on migration and left-wing social policies”. Despite the implications for French policy ING writes “we doubt this event has great market potential". EUR/USD -0.1% at 1.1428.
Antipodeans are weaker against the Buck. Kiwi looks to the RBNZ tomorrow, where analysts and markets are divided on whether the Bank will hike, or keep rates unchanged (expectations biased to tightening). Westpac’s note this morning opined a relatively market-neutral scenario would be one where the OCR is unchanged and a tightening bias is retained. Meanwhile, Aussie is lacklustre and lacks direction. AUD/NZD U/C remains just above 1.22.