[MARKET ANALYSIS] Buck moves higher amid geopols, JPY outperforms, Antipodeans lag

G10s are mostly lower against the Buck (DXY +0.1%) as flare-ups continue in the Middle East. Since the close on Tuesday, the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island, which was then met with retaliatory Iranian strikes on US bases in Kuwait, and explosions were also reported in Saudi Arabia, and air sirens were set off in the UAE.
The Dollar crept higher overnight in tandem with oil/yields, and now looks towards the 99.40 mark in DXY (session high 99.40). Tuesday saw firm JOLTS jobs data which rose to the highest level since May 2024. Today sees the release of ADP’s monthly employment figure, expected to rise to 110/120k depending on which consensus you look at.
JPY is the best G10 performer after sharp strength seen among comments from Japanese PM Takaichi and BoJ Governor Ueda. At around 08:30 BST, Japanese PM Takaichi said: “prepared to take appropriate measures in the FX market”. USD/JPY moved sharply lower from 159.91 to a trough of 159.55 within three minutes. The move pared around 20 pips, then around an hour later, comments from BoJ Governor Ueda resumed Yen strength. Ueda said the “BoJ’s basic stance is to continue raising the policy rate”, helping the pair mark a fresh session low of 159.36, though ultimately proving fleeting and returning to pre-Ueda levels. USD/JPY -0.1% at 159.80, a moving target at the time of writing.
Antipodeans are the worst G10 performers. Aussie fares a little better than the Bird despite soft growth data overnight, which contracted at a faster rate than anticipated on a quarterly basis. AUD/USD (-0.3%) immediately fell around 8 pips, pared the move, then resumed lower as the Buck picked up. AUD/NZD +0.3%.