[MARKET ANALYSIS] CAC outperforms as EssilorLuxottica's revenue beat outweighs Carrefour's guidance cut; NQ supported by positive SPCX/SCMI updates

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) have a slight positive tilt to start Wednesday’s session, with outperformance seen in France’s CAC 40 (+0.4%), as EssilorLuxottica upside outweighs the downside in Carrefour (see more below). Outside of a busy earnings docket, which is set to be even busier tomorrow, there has been little in terms of a broader driver. On the data front, UK CPI printed hotter-than-expected (3.5% vs exp. 3.4%); however, the FTSE 100 seems unmoved from the data.
• Sectors are mixed. Real Estate tops the sector pile, with Energy and Tech rounding out the sector gainers. At the bottom sits Autos, as Optimised Personal Care and Retail follow.
• A busy day in France, with multiple big names reporting Q3 metrics. Starting with EssilorLuxottica, the Co. reported Q3 revenue that beat estimates, with strong sales across all regions. As a result, shares are on track for their best day since Oct’25 (+14%). Turning to some not-so-good news, Carrefour (-14%) cuts its FY26 guidance, citing deteriorating consumption trends and operating conditions in France (in reference to the political unrest).
• Other key updates include: Adidas +1.6%, Q3 metrics beat and lifts its FY26 operating profit guidance; Iberdrola +0.6%, raises its FY26 adj. Net growth profit guidance to “at least” 10%; Qiagen +1.4%, as EQT reportedly offers USD 50/shr to acquire the company.
• US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in the NQ following upbeat after-hour earnings from SpaceX and Super Micro. The former reported a sharp increase in AI revenue, which drove a swing to profit, while the latter raised its Q1 outlook on stronger AI platform demand. Focus now turns to Meta and Tesla earnings tonight.

Sessions of this shape, where index performance is dictated by a handful of heavyweight single-stock prints rather than a macro driver, tend to produce narrow breadth and elevated dispersion, and the CAC is structurally prone to this given the index weight of its luxury and consumer names. The pairing here is the familiar split within European consumer exposure: branded, globally diversified demand holding up while domestic-facing staples retail cuts guidance, with Carrefour's reference to French political conditions echoing past episodes where local unrest hit domestic retailers and grocers harder than export-driven peers. Guidance language matters more than the quarter itself in these cases; cuts attributed to consumption trends rather than one-offs have historically invited follow-through downgrades across the French retail peer set rather than being treated as idiosyncratic. On the US side, after-hours beats from AI-linked names lifting the NQ ahead of megacap reports is the established pattern of this cycle, with the index typically holding the bid only if the larger platforms confirm the same demand narrative tonight. The UK CPI overshoot with an unmoved FTSE is consistent with the usual channel, where hotter domestic inflation transmits through sterling and gilt front ends rather than the exporter-heavy equity index. What follows is whether tomorrow's busier docket broadens or contradicts today's consumer-split read.