[MARKET ANALYSIS] Choppy crude action following two-way APAC trade amid shipping and refinery strikes followed by a Hormuz framework understanding

• Crude prices swing between gains and losses with initial upside amid a lack of Iran deal newsflow whilst some supply-side headlines came into focus alongside overnight shipping strikes. Ukrainian President Zelensky says Ukraine struck Bashneft-Novoil (~150k BPD) and Slavneft-Yanos (300k BPD) refineries (the latter being one of Russia’s largest oil-processing facilities), two Russian patrol boats and shadow fleet vessels in long-range attacks aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenues, whilst large smoke plumes and at least four apparent fires were seen at the Yaroslavl refinery. Thereafter, renewed downside was seen on source reports around the Iran-Oman Hormuz framework agreement, although losses are limited until confirmation from Iran. WTI Sep’26 trades in a USD 74.57-76.04/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 74.24-76.70/bbl), while Brent trades in a USD 78.92-80.35/bbl (vs yesterday’s 78.11-80.95/bbl). Dutch TTF is similarly choppy but currently up around 3% near EUR 54/MWh.
• Metals are mostly firmer as the energy complex trades choppy in a narrow range, while DXY yesterday fell back under its 100 DMA (99.729) for the second time this week. Furthermore, growing expectations of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have eased energy-driven inflation fears. Spot gold adds to yesterday’s gains and trades around the middle of a USD 4,245-4,304/oz range. 3M LME copper sits towards the top of a USD 14,053.00- 14,359.00/t.

For more details on the geopolitical situation, see below:

• To recap the notable updates from overnight, US President Trump said he would prefer to reach a deal with Iran, noting that talks are underway after Iran initiated contact, while reiterating the US was prepared for what he described as its biggest attack since World War II and adding that Iran respects the US. Vice President Vance said negotiations with Iran would take time, describing them as "messy" but expressing confidence they would ultimately produce a favourable outcome for the US. Meanwhile, Iran warned it would target Gulf states if the US launched new strikes. On the shipping front, UKMTO reported a tanker heard two explosions near Kumzar, Oman, though the vessel and crew were unharmed; Arab sources reported a missile attack on Bahrain, and Yemen's Houthis claimed to have targeted a Saudi oil vessel in the Gulf of Aden.
• This morning, major newsflow was quiet for the most part, until Arabic news sources, in line with Axios sources earlier in the week, said Iran and Oman have agreed on the broad framework for a proposed 60-day reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. An announcement is possible within days, though the agreement still requires approval from Iran’s National Security Council; the plan aims to restore navigation, direct inbound vessels through the shipping lane closest to Iran and outbound vessels through the maritime passage closest to Oman, reactivate the existing memorandum of understanding and Article 5, allow regional parties to assist with demining and other technical procedures, break the current deadlock and launch technical negotiations, while indirect contacts between Washington and Tehran continue through intermediaries. Note: The proposed agreement regarding Hormuz does not include imposing passage fees or services on ships. Furthermore, Article 5 of the US-Iran MoU reopens the Strait of Hormuz for safe, free shipping after a war. Iran claims the text gives them total control over the waterway. The US argues the text guarantees open, international access.