[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer as US-Iran continue to fight, Spot gold pulls-back a touch

Geopolitics remains in focus, with US and Iran still conducting strikes. Markets appear to be accustomed to the ongoing attacks, with focus now on how transits through the Strait are being impacted. On that note, 11 vessels went through the passage, 9 of those used the Iranian-designated route. Yen Ling Song of S&P Global Energy wrote that “we are seeing significantly greater caution among shipowners and operators”, given the threat of Iranian strikes. On this front, traders have continued to price in another supply glut this month – and recent rhetoric from President Trump/Iran, does not point to a near term resolution.
To recap, Trump warned that they would be striking Iran on Wednesday night, and threatened to hit power plants/bridges next week, unless Iran negotiates. Iran stated that it is a mistake to think military action will force them to talk.
Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer this morning. Price action overnight was fairly rangebound, but then dipped in early European trade – benchmarks have remained near recent lows since. Brent Sept’26 traded within a USD 85.02-86.55/bbl range.
Spot gold is a little lower this morning, but ultimately within the prior day’s ranges. Price action which appears to be a bit of pull-back from the extremes seen on Wednesday, following the cooler-than-expected CPI print. The yellow-metal currently holds above the USD 4k/oz mark, in a USD 4,017-4,062/oz range. Base metals hold a negative bias, as markets digested mixed Chinese data. 3M LME Copper traded within a USD 13,550-13,677/t range.