Daily US Equity Opening News - ASML raises guidance after Q2 beat; SSNLF plans new DRAM fab; OpenAI develops home AI device; Stripe-Advent offered USD 53bln for PYPL; LION gets BOIVF interest; PSKY-WBD deal faces WGA antitrust suit

DAY AHEAD:

DATA: In Europe, Eurozone May industrial production is seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.1%). In North America, US June PPI metrics are expected to see the headline unchanged M/M (prev. 1.1%), with the annual rate seen cooling to 6.2% Y/Y (prev. 6.5%); core (ex-food, energy, trade) is seen rising 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.8%), with the annual rate seen easing to 5.0% Y/Y (prev. 5.1%). Elsewhere, the NY Fed Manufacturing gauge for July (prev. 5.70) is due.
CENTRAL BANKS: Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.25%, and there will be a press conference with Governor Macklem after the announcement. Fed Chair Warsh testifies to the US Senate, following his testimony to the House on Tuesday; Fed’s Williams (voter), Cook (voter) and Musalem (2028 voter) are also due to make remarks today. In the afternoon, the Fed will publish its Beige Book. Elsewhere, ECB’s Nagel and BoE’s Pill will give remarks.
SUPPLY: Germany auctions EUR 3.0bln across of 2054, 2056 and 2052 debt.
ENERGY: EIA weekly energy inventories due; afterhours on Tuesday, the weekly API inventory data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a smaller than expected draw of -0.6mln bbls (exp. -2.7mln), Cushing posted a build of +0.2mln bbls, distillates stocks saw a larger than expected build of +2.3mln bbls (exp. +1.0mln), and gasoline inventories saw a surprise draw of -1.7mln bbls (exp. +0.6mln).
EARNINGS: Notable US Corporates reporting today include: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS), Progressive (PGR), BlackRock (BLK), Elevance (ELV), Cintas (CTAS), PNC Financial (PNC), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), United Airlines (UAL), J.B. Hunt (JBHT).
PRIMER - WARSH SENATE TESTIMONY (15:00BST/10:00EDT): At his House testimony on Tuesday, Fed Chair Warsh said the June CPI decline was better than expected but “mission accomplished” had not been reached, and hinted that interest rates are among the tools available to curb inflation, saying the Fed would have a “good family fight” about the extent and timing of deploying them. He is expected to echo these remarks to the Senate.
PRIMER – BOC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (14:45BST/09:45EDT): The BoC is expected to hold rates at 2.25%. Policymakers are comfortable that the current rate is sufficient to contain inflation, adopting a wait-and-see approach amid Middle East uncertainty and trade policy volatility. Governor Macklem has noted little pass-through from higher oil prices to broader goods and services prices, while renewed Hormuz tensions leave the inflation outlook uncertain. Newsquawk’s full BoC preview can be accessed here.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

President Trump - Trump said US strikes on Iran will continue until he decides otherwise, with power plants and bridges among next week’s planned targets unless Iran returns to negotiations. Trump confirmed US officials spoke to Iran on Tuesday demanding a deal and that he held a Situation Room meeting on wider strike options. On the Hormuz toll proposal, Trump said he reversed course after Gulf states asked to handle fees differently, and offered investments instead, adding he does not think anyone should charge a fee in the strait.
US - CENTCOM launched additional strikes against Iran on Tuesday, targeting Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Hengam Island, Bampur and Bandar Imam Khomeini, with air defences activating around the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. US forces simultaneously resumed the naval blockade of vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports. CENTCOM stated the strikes were aimed at eliminating emerging threats and degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran - Iran’s IRGC struck US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, including the US Fifth Fleet Command HQ and fuel facilities in Bahrain, Ali Al Salem air base’s drone ramp in Kuwait, and US positions at Azraq base in Jordan. The IRGC said US aggression would only delay the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said the MoU effectively no longer exists and that military pressure would not force Iran to request negotiations, though he left open the possibility of a return to talks.
Strait of Hormuz - A handful of vessels crossed the Straits after the US resumed its naval blockade of Iran and ship attacks increased, Bloomberg reports. A US-sanctioned super tanker carrying Iranian oil exited into the Gulf of Oman before stopping shortly afterwards, ship-tracking data showed.

TRADE:

US-China - China will promote sharing AI advances and oppose efforts to monopolise the technology, according to the People’s Daily. The newspaper, which is seen as a mouthpiece for the state, criticised using AI to pursue hegemony, dominate resources or create technology barriers, as Washington pressures US labs including Anthropic to restrict foreign access to advanced models.

MACRO:

China Activity Data - Chinese GDP slowed to its weakest pace in more than three years, with Q2 GDP growth easing to 4.3% Y/Y (exp. 4.4%, prev. 5%), below the official target range of 4.5-5.0%, and rising 0.9% Q/Q (exp. 0.9%, prev. 1.3%). Bloomberg calculations showed that the GDP deflator turned positive for the first time in three years, rising 1.6% in Q2, as higher oil prices ended a record streak of deflation. Industrial production picked up to 5.3% Y/Y (exp. 4.7%, prev. 4.5%), with capacity utilization at 73% (prev. 73.6%). Retail sales rose to 1.0% Y/Y (exp. -0.1%, prev. -0.6%). Unemployment fell to 5.0% (exp. 5.1%, prev. 5.1%). Fixed asset investment declined by a rate of -5.7% Y/Y (exp. -5%, prev. -4.1%). China’s stats bureau said economic operations are still within a reasonable range.
US Treasuries - Foreign holdings of US Treasuries rose USD 18.5bln in May to USD 9.37tln, the second-largest on record. Canada led the increase, with a USD 38.7bln jump to USD 435.8bln, while Japan, the largest foreign holder, drew down its stockpile by USD 66.8bln to USD 1.14tln. The UK’s holdings rose USD 11.1bln to USD 948.6bln and China’s gained USD 8.2bln to USD 659.3bln.
Fed’s Bowman - Senator Elizabeth Warren asked the Federal Reserve’s Office of Inspector General to investigate Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman’s decision to commission an outside review of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank failure, citing potential conflicts of interest and government waste. Warren raised concerns that the reviewing firm, Starling Trust Sciences, is connected to former Vice Chair Randy Quarles, potentially violating Fed procurement and conflict of interest policies.
BoC - The Bank of Canada cancelled its media embargo for Wednesday’s interest rate decision after a union planned to protest at the alternative lockup site, due to a strike by approximately 50 security guards ongoing since 23rd June. The decision will be released on the bank’s website at 09:45EDT/14:45BST.
German Manufacturing - Low Rhine river water levels are forcing vessels to reduce loads, raising transport costs and disrupting manufacturers including Thyssenkrupp (TKAMY) and BASF (BASFY), Bloomberg reports. The article notes that a 2018 comparable episode cost Germany approximately 0.4% of GDP. The disruption adds to headwinds for an already weak manufacturing sector, with the government recently having halved its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5%; ECB board member Schnabel has also cited the Rhine as a potential upside inflation risk.
UK Chancellor - Advisers to incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham are divided over whether to appoint Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as Chancellor of the Exchequer, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. While some on the Labour left expected Miliband to get the role, a second faction within Burnham’s team is strongly arguing against the appointment, with growing belief he will not receive the chancellorship.
KOSPI - South Korean President Lee Jae Myung described the country’s stock market as “quite unstable” following extreme volatility, saying the historically unprecedented surge in such a short period would require time and fluctuation to stabilise.
JPY - Japanese retail traders’ net dollar short positions more than quadrupled to JPY 2.79tln in June, the largest in data going back to late 2008, amid speculation over official yen intervention, Bloomberg reports.

TECH:

Nvidia (NVDA) - CEO Huang says Rubin is on track, and already in production.
Apple (AAPL) - Apple Intelligence is among seven mobile generative AI services registered in China to offer on-device mobile AI services, according to the China Cyberspace Regulator.
ASML Holdings (ASML) - Q2 EPS 7.59 (exp. 6.97), Q2 revenue EUR 9.33bln (exp. 8.80bln). Gross margin 54.0% (exp. 52.0%; guided 51-52%; prev. 53.7% Y/Y), net income EUR 2.92bln (exp. 2.62bln). CEO said AI-related investments and continued progress in AI technologies are driving demand, with customers accelerating capacity expansion plans and order intake remaining extremely strong in H1. It has entered high-volume production of Intel (INTC) 18A logic products using High NA EUV, plans to add 30% to its 2026 NA EUV capacity of around 65 systems for 2027, and plans to add 30% to its 2026 DUV immersion capacity of around 130 systems for 2027, while investigating further 30% capacity increases in 2028. Sees Q3 revenue between EUR 11-12bln (exp. 10.4bln); raised its FY26 revenue guidance to between EUR 43-45bln (exp. 39.4bln; prev. saw 36-40bln), and raised its FY26 gross margin view to between 54-56% (prev. saw 51-53%).
Intel (INTC), ASML Holdings (ASML) - Intel is using ASML’s EXE High NA EUV equipment in Oregon to manufacture part of its Ultra 3 chip range, Bloomberg reports. The deployment supports ASML’s case for broader adoption of the costly technology, while Intel seeks to restore manufacturing leadership and attract external foundry customers.
Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung Electronics plans to build a new DRAM fabrication plant at its Giheung semiconductor campus, replacing earlier plans for two research and development buildings, as it seeks to benefit from rising demand for AI memory, Korea Economic Daily reports. Separately, Samsung has yet to receive a volume-production order from Nvidia (NVDA) for HBM4 chips, with HBM revenue from the AI chipmaker so far limited to paid evaluation samples, according to Digitimes.
OpenAI - OpenAI is developing a speaker-like home AI companion capable of controlling appliances, playing media, answering questions and responding to messages, Bloomberg reports. The IPO-bound company paid USD 6.5bln last year for io, the AI devices start-up founded by former Apple (AAPL) design chief Jony Ive. Elsewhere, OpenAI said it takes Apple’s lawsuit allegations seriously, but is unaware of evidence that the complaint has merit; it added that it supports competition and people working where they choose.
CXMT - Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT is seeking to raise RMB 66.6bln in a Shanghai Stock Exchange IPO that would value the company at RMB 579.2bln, according to an exchange filing cited by the FT. The offering would be mainland China’s largest IPO since Agricultural Bank of China’s listing in 2010.
Australia AI - Australia PM Albanese said it plans to introduce a national AI framework requiring large data centre operators to underwrite new power supplies and pay full grid connection and water infrastructure costs, with strong copyright protections for creative works. Albanese said legislation would be brought to parliament early next year.
PagerDuty (PD) - PagerDuty appointed Alkami (ALKT) CEO Alex Shootman to its board, effective 14th July. Elsewhere, Elena Gomez has resigned to focus on her roles as president and chief financial officer at Toast (TOST).
Broadcom (AVGO) - Chief Legal Officer Mark Brazeal sold 25K shares on 10th July, for a total USD 10.03mln.
Arista Networks (ANET) - CEO Jayshree Ullal sold 234.6K shares on 10th July, for a total USD 43.9mln.
TomTom (TMOAY) - TomTom returned to operating profit in Q2, reporting EBIT of EUR 8.5mln (exp. EUR 8mln), revenue EUR 134.6mln (exp. EUR 135mln), with operating margin turning positive at 6%; it confirmed its FY revenue outlook of EUR 495-555mln (exp. EUR 546.5mln), and guided for a return to revenue growth from 2027.
Nokia (NOK) - Nokia will sell an AI-RAN solution from 2027 through its Nvidia (NVDA) partnership. Built on Nokia’s AI-native anyRAN software and Nvidia’s Aerial AI-RAN platform, it targets more than 100% spectral-efficiency gains by 2028. Nokia will support three accelerated-computing baseband platforms and make its existing portfolio fully ORAN-compliant.

COMMUNICATIONS:

Lionsgate (LION), Bollore (BOIVF) - Lionsgate Studios is exploring a sale after attracting interest from Bollore and Banijay, Reuters reports. Lionsgate is valued at about USD 3.8bln, and is assessing approaches with advisors; no deal is certain. Bollore is seeking to strengthen Canal+ production capabilities, while Banijay remains focused on integrating All3Media.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) - The Writers Guild of America West and Writers Guild of America East sued to block Paramount Skydance’s proposed USD 111bln acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, Variety reports. The guilds allege federal antitrust violations and harm to writers. The filing followed separate antitrust litigation from 12 state attorneys general.
TKO Group (TKO) - Director Nick Khan sold 9.6K shares on 13th July, for a total USD 1.75mln.

FINANCIALS:

PayPal (PYPL) - Stripe and Advent International have submitted a joint offer to acquire PayPal at USD 60.50/shr, valuing the company at over USD 53bln (a 28% premium to Tuesday’s close), according to sources cited by Reuters. The bid is backed by approximately USD 50bln in committed bank financing, with Stripe and Advent each holding equal stakes under the proposal. PayPal has not yet responded to the approach, which was first made in early April.
Goldman Sachs (GS) - Goldman raised USD 10bln in a three-part investment-grade bond sale with maturities ranging from six to 31 years, attracting peak orders of approximately USD 32bln, following record Q2 equity trading results of USD 7.42bln and a 32% Y/Y increase in FICC revenues. Goldman has sold USD 44bln in US dollar investment-grade bonds year-to-date, including a USD 16bln transaction that was the largest by a major US bank this year.
Carlyle Group (CG) - Carlyle-owned KFC Japan may reduce menus and alter opening hours after unauthorised access to Nichirei systems disrupted nationwide deliveries, Nikkei reports. Mobile ordering and delivery services were suspended.

CONSUMER:

Richemont (CFRUY) - Richemont Q1 sales were up +20% (exp. 11%), jewellery division sales +24%; specialist watchmakers +8%; its Americas sales rose +27%, with growth seen across all regions, including a returning to growth in the Middle East and Africa. Reports said that the results underscores Richemont’s resilience relative to broader luxury sector peers amid Chinese demand weakness and Middle East disruption.
Ebay (EBAY), Etsy (ETSY) - UK Competition and Markets Authority cleared eBay’s planned USD 1.2bln acquisition of Depop from Etsy, concluding its phase 1 review without referring the deal to an in-depth phase 2 investigation.
PVH Corp. (PVH) - PVH appointed Alexis Rollier as CFO, and will join in early September.
Domino’s (DPZ) - Domino’s Pizza appointed Michael Creedon and Anneliese Olson to its board and elected Corie Barry as lead independent director. Barry, Best Buy’s (BBY) CEO, replaces Richard Federico, who remains a director and audit committee chair. Creedon is Dollar Tree’s (DLTR) CEO, while Olson leads HP’s (HPQ) Imaging, Printing and Solutions business.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) - Ulta Beauty appointed Kelly Garcia as CTO, effective 31st August. Garcia, an Ulta Beauty director since 2022, will resign from the board upon starting the role. He most recently served as Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) executive vice-president and CTO from July 2012.

ENERGY:

China Refining Output - China’s oil refining output fell 18% Y/Y to 51.24mln tons in June, the lowest since March 2020, as demand weakness and Persian Gulf supply disruptions weighed on the sector. Independent refiners were worst hit given their reliance on Iranian crude, with operating rates falling to a nine-year low.
Aker BP (AKRBF) - Q2 revenue USD 3.68bln (exp. 3.65bln), EBITDA 3.35bn (exp. 3.25bln); it raised its 2026 capex guidance to USD 6.8-7.2bln, and also nudged up the low end of its 2026 production view to 380-400K boepd.

MATERIALS:

China Aluminium Output - China aluminium output rose +4.7% Y/Y to a record 3.98mln tons; coal output dropped 9.7% to 381mln tons following the post-Shanxi disaster safety reviews.
Rio Tinto (RIO) - Rio Tinto reported Q2 Pilbara iron ore sales of 85.3mln tons (exp. 83.1mln), with shipments rising +17% Q/Q and +5% Y/Y to 88.8mln tons following cyclone disruptions in Q1. Copper output fell 7% Q/Q to 213K tons after an unplanned furnace shutdown at its Kennecott smelter in Utah, which is expected to remain affected for six months; FY copper guidance of above 800K tons was maintained. FY Pilbara iron ore shipment and sales guidance was held at 323-338mln and 343-366mln respectively. The Middle East conflict has had no material operational disruption, but lifted diesel costs to approximately USD 140/bbl (prev. around USD 85/bbl), adding around USD 0.80/ton to Pilbara costs.
Antofagasta (ANFGY) - Antofagasta reported Q2 copper production of 142K tonnes (exp. 156.4K), copper sales of 267.8K tonnes (prev. 324K Y/Y), gold production of 92.8K ounces (prev. 91.2K) and molybdenum production of 6.1K tonnes (prev. 7.4K Y/Y); it maintained FY guidance, and expects higher copper output through year-end.
Alcoa (AA) - Australia, Japan, the US and Alcoa reached a final investment decision on a gallium plant at Alcoa’s Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia. Alcoa will build and operate the facility, which will support critical-mineral supply chains. The project is not expected to materially affect Alcoa’s finances.

INDUSTRIALS:

Pentair (PNR) - Pentair appointed Robert Fishman as interim executive vice-president and CFO after Nicholas Brazis resigned on 10th July to join a private company. Fishman previously served as Pentair’s CFO from 2020 to March 2026. Pentair reported Q2 prelim. adj. EPS of 1.12 (exp. 1.48), Q2 prelim. revenue of USD 930mln (exp. 1.14bln); it cut Q2 guidance due to Pool channel destocking, which negatively impacted Pool segment sales by approximately USD 170mln and Pool segment income by approximately USD 105mln, partly offset by approximately USD 35mln of IEEPA refunds. CEO said the headwinds are temporary, and it is taking decisive actions to adapt to current demand while positioning the business for normalised performance in 2027, with Flow and Water Solutions performing generally in line with expectations. It lowered FY26 guidance, and sees adj. EPS between 4.60-4.80 (exp. 5.34; prev. saw 5.30-5.40) and revenue down approximately 4-7% Y/Y (exp. 4.28bln; prev. saw up 2-4%).

HEALTHCARE:

Roche (RHHBY) - Roche unveiled plans for its PrevenTRON Alzheimer’s disease trial, which will recruit 1,600 people and use its experimental trontinemab antibody; the FDA also granted priority review for Gazyva for primary membranous nephropathy.
Regeneron (REGN) - Regeneron’s dupilumab received orphan drug designation from the FDA.
Qiagen (QGEN) - Qiagen launched the CE-IVDR-certified QIAstat-Dx BCID GN Plus AMR Panel in Europe, detecting 13 gram-negative pathogens and 18 resistance markers in about one hour.