[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude choppy but rangebound as Iran risks offset the midterm trade; precious metals surge on the Democratic sweep and Iran risk

Newsquawk Staff · 4 Nov 2026, 09:53 UTC

Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer but rangebound, having dipped overnight after US President Trump told the FT there is no immediate plan to strike Iran, alongside the initial Democratic sweep trade, before recovering as that trade faded. WTI Dec'26 trades within a USD 94.90-97.15/bbl range (vs yesterday's USD 93.59-98.82/bbl range), while Brent Jan'27 moves within a USD 102.56-104.96/bbl range (vs yesterday's USD 100.80-107.24/bbl range).
Focus remains on the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for US strikes. The IRGC said four tankers were destroyed after striking mines south of the Strait and two other vessels were detained, while Tehran's Mayor said the Strait will not reopen until the US fulfils its commitments. CCTV reported that Tehran remains far from reaching an agreement with the US (in line with yesterday's reports), while Trump said "if Iran behaves, then we can sign something up". As a reminder, US Central Command reportedly has a plan to strike Iran as early as Wednesday.
Dutch TTF is firmer within a EUR 91.75-94.50/MWh range, after the IEA warned European gas reserves are at their lowest since 2013.
Spot gold surges to levels above USD 4,000/oz, within a USD 3,920-4,039/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 3,896-3,971/oz range), as the Democrats' projected sweep of Congress weighs on the USD and US yields, with markets pricing in a greater chance of legislative gridlock and downside risks to growth, while the complex could also be seeing hedging demand ahead of potential US strikes on Iran. Spot silver outperforms within a USD 48.97-51.98/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 48.62-50.87/oz range), while platinum and palladium futures are also firmer.
3M LME Copper is flat within a USD 13,832.48-14,084.00/t range (vs yesterday's USD 13,896.05-14,286.35/t range), having declined overnight as risk assets were hit on the increased prospects of a Democratic sweep and concerns over tighter AI regulation, in turn initially hitting data-centre-driven copper demand. The red metal has since recovered to flat as those concerns eased, with Republican wins in the Louisiana PSC races supporting the data-centre narrative and the Democratic trade fading, while the softer USD also provides some support.

What our morning note said

The Middle East · about 3 hours before this headline

Trump said the US has no immediate plan to strike Iran, although CENTCOM reportedly has a plan to strike as early as Wednesday.
Iran's President Pezeshkian said Iran won't bow to coercion or imposed demands.

Read the whole note Free to read.

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"We are interested in the diplomatic track, but without making concessions", Al Arabiya citing an Iranian diplomatic source.
WTI crude+0.8%
"Washington has approved the draft memorandum of understanding that the Qatari delegation presented to Iran yesterday", Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reports citing sources close to the mediation team.
WTI crude−3.6%
Qatari mediators expect feedback from the US and Iran within 36 hours on a new proposal to advance talks, according to an official briefed on the talks cited by Reuters.
WTI crude−1.6%

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