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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures gradually fall as escalatory geopolitical headlines remain light

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures gradually fall as escalatory geopolitical headlines remain light

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  • Crude futures are on a softer footing with little in terms of escalatory headlines on the US-Iran front, and with no “hot response” from Iran over US’ “self-defence” strike earlier in the week. Furthermore, mediation efforts are seemingly ongoing, but funds and Hormuz management remain sticking points. That being said, an official in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said the likelihood of renewing war with the United States is "slim", but warned that "the armed forces are lying in wait with full magazines".
  • Nonetheless, crude futures are on a grind lower with WTI Jul towards the lower end of a USD 90.85-93.69/bbl range, next eyeing the Monday low of 89.41/bbl. Brent Aug dipped under yesterday’s low and currently resides in a USD 94.20-96.45/bbl range ahead of Monday’s USD 93.21/bbl trough. Dutch TTF is softer by almost 2% intraday and back under the EUR 47/MWh.
  • Elsewhere, spot gold and silver remain softer despite the pullback in crude as inflationary concerns remain on traders’ minds, with the RBNZ’s hawkish hold overnight also not helping sentiment across the space. Spot gold fell under USD 4,500/oz to reside towards the lower end of a USD 4,479-4,528/oz parameter.
  • Base metals are mixed/mostly lower as inflation concerns remain heightened, and with large buyer China also seeing a subdued performance overnight. 3M LME copper trades flat within a narrow 13,625.78- 13,749.08/t range, awaiting the next macro impulse

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