[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures lift following punchy Trump rhetoric, gold/silver supported by tighter Indian import restrictions

Crude futures surged at the start of Asia-Pac trade, with WTI making a new contract high of USD 104.37/bbl while Brent peaked at USD 112.00/bbl. Punchy rhetoric over the weekend by US President Trump, warning Iran that the “clock is ticking” and that “they better get moving, fast, or there won’t be anything left of them" initially spurred the upside in energy prices. However, benchmarks have pulled back as European trade gets underway, with WTI and Brent now trading at the lower end of its USD 101.59-104.37/bbl and USD 109.56-112/bbl range, respectively. More recently, according to Pakistani sources, Pakistan shared a revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night.
Further updates from the Middle East, there was a drone strike on UAE’s nuclear power plant, with investigations still ongoing over where the drones originated from. Looking ahead, Axios reported that President Trump is to meet again with his national security team on Tuesday. As a reminder, the last time Trump met with this team it was reported that a possible resumption of military action was discussed to break the negotiation deadlock.
Spot gold briefly dipped below USD 4,500/oz amid higher energy prices as trade got underway but has since regained the handle and currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4481-4560/oz range. Jewellers in India have reported higher demand for the yellow metal, ahead of the wedding season, after Indian authorities hiked gold import tariffs and then later curbed the amount of gold that can be imported. Silver has also faced restrictions with tightening rules for imports, describing imports as now “restricted” rather than “free”. Spot silver is currently in a USD 73.71-76.76/oz range, consolidating following Friday’s selloff.
3M LME Copper has started Monday’s trade on the backfoot, slipping back below USD 13.5k/t and falling closer towards last week’s trough of USD 13.4k/t. China’s growth slowed in April, with investment contracting while retail sales printed essentially flat Y/Y.
On the ags front, corn (+3.1%) and wheat (+3.3%) futures have surged at the start of trade, after China agreed to buy at least USD 17bln in American agricultural produce annually through 2028.