[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures softer as Qatar plans to boost LNG production; copper falls on weak Chinese retail sales

Geopolitical newsflow has calmed down as markets now await the official MoU signing on Friday. More recently, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said a new round of US-Iran talks will start on the day of the signing in Switzerland. Concrete MoU details remain unclear. Overnight, US President Trump said Iran has agreed never to have a nuclear weapon.
Crude futures traded rangebound throughout the Asia-Pac session but have seen pressure in recent trade, driven by reports that Qatar is planning to rapidly boost LNG production to about 50% capacity a month after safe passage through the Strait is restored and c. 80% within two months. WTI Jul'26 slips below the USD 80/bbl mark, trading at the lower end of its USD 79.42-81.58/bbl range. Brent Aug'26 falls below the USD 82/bbl mark (USD 82.00-83.80/bbl). Dutch TTF also lower, but remains above the EUR 42/MWh mark.
Spot gold is on a firmer footing, after gains were pared back slightly in the latter end of Monday's session. The yellow metal remains above the key USD 4300/oz handle, currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4306-4336/oz band. According to a WGC survey of 74 central banks, 45% said they plan to buy gold in the coming year, with only 1 saying it plans to cut its holdings. “I think the fall in the price is an opportunity for some central banks to start buying in,” said Shaokai Fan, global head of central banks for the WGC.
3M LME Copper is on the softer side, driven by the disappointing Chinese domestic data. Retail sales fell for the first time in over 3 years, contracting 0.6% in May and missing estimates of 0%. In contrast, industrial production rose 4.5%, beating the 4.3% consensus. The red metal trades in the bottom half of its USD 13.64k-13.77k/t range.