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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude hit by the geopolitical progress, XAU climbs into NFP

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude hit by the geopolitical progress, XAU climbs into NFP

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  • Crude benchmarks are on the backfoot, after mediators suggested positive progress was made in the US-Iran indirect conversation. Conversely, gas benchmarks continue to rise with Dutch TTF above EUR 44/MWh as the European forecast points to renewed heat.
  • Brent down to a USD 70.38/bbl base, though it has reverted back towards the USD 71.00/bbl but remains in the red. The mentioned base is the lowest print since the end of February, when USD 70.20/bbl printed for the September contract. ,
  • For today, US NFP will dominate the macro narrative, with a full Newsquawk preview available. Specifically for energy, we await any further update from the US-Iran talks, and while the mediator-led exchange has now concluded, we could still see updates as the parties agreed to continue talks over the “coming period”.
  • Spot gold at a USD 4080/oz peak. In a recovery from the move below USD 4k/oz seen in the last two sessions. Upside today is a function of a weaker USD and relatively steady UST action. As above, impetus will come from the US NFP report.
  • Base peers are under pressure, despite the constructive European risk tone and the mentioned USD pressure. As the complex follows the downbeat performance seen in mainland China overnight, and despite Hong Kong seeing strength on its holiday return.

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