[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude jumps on renewed US-Iran strikes, Spot gold edges lower

Crude benchmarks jumped c. 3.7% overnight (vs current +2.3%) amidst the latest bout of US-Iran strikes, and after the Iranian’s announce that the Strait of Hormuz is shut until further notice. Traffic through the Strait has slipped to multi-week lows, with only 6 vessels passing on Sunday (lowest in five-weeks). Click here for a full analysis piece
As the European morning got underway, price action was fairly rangebound; however, some volatility was seen following comments by the Iranian Foreign Minister. He began the presser fairly hawkish, where he stated that Iran would not fulfil the MoU as long as the US doesn’t. Some modest upside was seen in benchmarks, but this was soon reversed after he stated that strikes against regional neighbours are “solely” against US bases. He also added that they are in contact with mediators.
It is interesting that the FM has chosen to say that Iran is "solely" acting against US bases, rather than also mentioning energy facilities. It indicates, at least for now, that the country is attempting to avoid a wider escalation. However, overnight, the Kuwait Oil Company said that its drilling platform was struck.
Brent Aug’26 trades firmer by c. 2.3% and holds towards the lower end of a USD 77.72-79.80/bbl range.
Spot gold (-1%) extends lower this morning amidst the reemergence of inflationary woes, as energy prices grind higher this morning. Currently holding within a USD 4,044-4,075/oz range. Elsewhere, base metals are entirely in the red given the negative risk tone. 3M LME Copper (-0.3%) trades within a USD 13,364-13,480/t range.