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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude lifted on escalatory Iranian rhetoric and ahead of Trump's speech, energy gains dent XAU

Crude prices are rising on the back of escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S., particularly following President Trump's announcement regarding maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude lifted on escalatory Iranian rhetoric and ahead of Trump's speech, energy gains dent XAU

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Thin conditions for fixed with numerous regions away, lows hit on Iranian rhetoric

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  • Energy benchmarks are at highs, firmer by in excess of USD 2/bbl for WTI and Brent and over EUR 0.50/MWh for Dutch TTF. 
  • Specifics for the space include US President Trump announcing Project Freedom, to get neutral vessels out of Hormuz. In response, Iran said US interference would be considered a ceasefire violation. Since, and prompting notable energy upside, the Iranian Major Abdullahi said any foreign forces, but particularly US, would be attacked if they approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The latter update was enough to lift WTI Jun'26 and Brent Jul'26 to highs of USD 104.36/bbl and USD 110.68/bbl, respectively. Gains that weighed on the equity and fixed income complexes while providing support to the USD. Note, this entirely overshadowed more constructive updates, such as the US handing over 22 crew members from the MV Touska, an Iranian container ship.
  • Ahead, we have remarks from POTUS at 20:00BST. Before that, geopolitical updates around Hormuz or the Iranian proposals, which Trump said were unlikely to be accepted as Iran had "not yet paid a big enough price", will be in focus.
  • Spot gold on the backfoot, as the inverse correlation between energy and the precious metal sends it to a USD 4574/oz low, with downside of near 1% on the session. Furthermore, conditions were a little thin overnight, given the absence of Japan and mainland China. The latter point is weighing on copper prices, while conditions there are thin on account of the UK holiday, and as such, there is no LME trade.
Context

This geopolitical risk is contributing to higher energy prices, which inversely affects gold, leading to a decline in its value—highlighting the complex interplay between geopolitical events and commodity markets. Watch for further developments from Trump's upcoming speech, as they may impact market sentiment further.

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