[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude on a softer footing with newsflow relatively light on Thursday; metals firm despite FOMC losses

Sessions of this shape, crude drifting lower on absent newsflow while metals recover a post-FOMC dip alongside a fading dollar, are a familiar sequencing pattern: the initial hawkish or dovish impulse from the meeting tends to partially retrace as positioning adjusts, and gold in particular has historically used the 100-day average as the line around which that retracement is contested, which is where spot is sitting now. The distinction worth drawing in the energy complex is between headline-driven drift and genuine supply risk: without a fresh catalyst, crude tends to bleed geopolitical premium intraday, but the Iranian diplomatic activity flagged here (the foreign minister's regional calls during a Beijing visit) is the type of backchannel contact that has preceded both escalatory and de-escalatory turns in past episodes, and the market's established habit is to re-price on confirmed supply-side developments rather than on diplomacy itself. The Brent-WTI spread and the shape of the front of the crude curve are the usual tells for whether the market is treating Middle East risk as a physical or a headline issue. TTF holding above its morning support while crude softens fits the pattern of European gas trading on its own storage and flow fundamentals rather than in lockstep with oil. Base metals firmer with copper near the top of its range is consistent with the dollar channel dominating in the absence of fresh China demand news; the follow-ons are the next US data prints that test the post-FOMC dollar move, and any confirmation or denial of substance behind the Iranian contacts.