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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude pares Monday's gains, to the benefit of XAU

Crude oil prices have retreated from Monday's highs, which may suggest a cooling in the market despite geopolitical tensions, with Brent now below USD 113.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude pares Monday's gains, to the benefit of XAU

[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses move higher, HSBC -5% post-earnings, weighing on the Banking sector

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Gilts gap lower on return from a Bank Holiday, USTs and Bunds relatively contained

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  • Crude in the red, as energy generally eases off the highs printed on Monday, where Brent briefly posted gains in excess of USD 6/bbl at a USD 115.30/bbl peak, a conflict high for the July contract. As it stands, Brent is below USD 113.00/bbl, but remains markedly clear of the week's USD 106.60/bbl open.
  • Overnight, specifics were bullish for energy, but the magnitude of Monday's move meant the space failed to benefit. In brief, US President Trump said the conflict could continue for another three weeks, and time is not of the essence. Furthermore, a Fox report suggests the US is closer to resuming combat activity vs 24hrs prior. From the Iranian side, reports around recent strikes and who knew in advance point to ongoing or even further fractures within the leadership. 
  • Dutch TTF in-fitting, lower and holding around EUR 47.70/MWh vs a EUR 49.23/MWh peak on Monday; however, this left it markedly shy of recent levels, which run as high as EUR 73.41/MWh
  • Spot gold firmer, benefitting from lower energy prices and the respite it has provided to the USD. XAU peaked at USD 4558/oz just after the European cash equity open and remains in proximity to its best levels. Ahead, Fed speak, and US data dominate from a scheduled perspective.
  • Base metals firmer on the return of LME, following the broader risk tone, though with mainland China still away, the magnitude is limited thus far. 3M LME Copper firmer and back above USD 13k.
Context

This decline is benefiting gold, as lower energy prices are providing a respite for the USD, potentially making gold an attractive alternative amid heightened uncertainty. Traders should watch how these shifts impact associated markets, especially in light of upcoming Fed communications and US economic data.

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