[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude prices softer as OPEC+ increases output and flags higher supply

Newsquawk Staff · 6 Jul 2026, 01:55 UTC

Crude futures have started the week on the back foot, helped by the lack of geopolitical updates over the weekend and the decision by OPEC+ to increase output by 188k bpd in August while flagging higher supply. WTI Aug’26 opened at USD 68.68/bbl and has fallen to a trough of USD 68.16/bbl, but has since rebounded but well within the day’s range. In terms of weekend Middle-Eastern newsflow, Iran's commercial attaché told IRNA that maritime trade between Iran and Qatar has resumed while Qatar's Transport Ministry said that maritime activities would resume with immediate effect. In terms of hostilities, the UKMTO received a report of an incident 30NM southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen, of a cargo vessel under attack by unknown armed assailants.
Precious Metals have lacked any clear direction to start the week, albeit holding onto modest gains. Spot gold oscillates in a USD 4170-4202/oz range, seemingly resilient despite a firmer dollar.
3M LME Copper trades at the upper end of its USD 13.38k-13.46k/t range, benefiting from the broadly positive tone, despite US equity futures pulling back from session highs.

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 22 Oct, 10:37 UTC · what it led with

Iran's IRGC Navy warned that US efforts to encourage passage could result in strikes on US bases.
Iran's Major General Rezaei said Iran has presented seven new conditions through mediators and will neither reopen the Strait of Hormuz nor resume negotiations until they are met.

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Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%
Mediation efforts said that "Qatar and Pakistan presented a 'compromise proposal' that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
WTI crude−4.6%
"A breakthrough is expected to be announced this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing a source.
WTI crude−1.1%

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