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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude pulls back as the US downplays Thursday's confrontation with Iran

The US downplaying the confrontation with Iran is a key factor providing relief to energy markets, as initial fears of escalated conflict have eased.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude pulls back as the US downplays Thursday's confrontation with Iran

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  • In geopolitics, US and Iranian forces exchanged major attacks near the Strait of Hormuz after Iran allegedly targeted three US Navy destroyers with missiles, drones, and fast boats; the US said it intercepted all threats and retaliated with strikes on Iranian military sites. The US military carried out strikes in Iran's Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, according to Fox News, citing a US official. The official said it was not a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire. The UAE was simultaneously hit by renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks, most were intercepted by air defences, though several injuries and disruptions were reported. Despite the escalation, President Trump said the April ceasefire still stands, while warning that failure to reach a broader deal with Iran could lead to much heavier bombing and further regional instability. Meanwhile, Iran’s Press TV said conditions on Iranian islands and coastal cities near the Strait of Hormuz had returned to normal. Seemingly the lack of continued attacks seen as "more positive than feared", with energy initially gapping higher at the resumption of trade before gradually waning as attacks stopped.
  • WTI and Brent futures hold onto modest gains after waning from opening highs, with WTI now back towards USD 95/bbl (94.15-98.64/bbl range) while Brent just about holds onto a USD 100/bbl handle in a 99.62-102.92/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF has fallen back towards EUR 44/MWh from earlier prices north of EUR 45/MWh. Traders are on the lookout for clarity from the Iranian side on whether the ceasefire still stands and whether diplomacy will continue.
  • Spot gold is firmer as the DXY eases with oil. The bullion trades towards the top end of USD 4,682-4,734.90/oz parameters, off yesterday's USD 4,775/oz. Gold also sees underlying support on renewed buying interest after the PBoC’s purchases, with China raising gold reserves for an 18th straight month in April, adding 260k ounces.
  • Base metals are mostly firmer and benefit from the broader losses in the USD amid a lack of further US-Iran escalation following the initial skirmish. 3M LME copper resides towards the top end of USD 13,273.60-13,616.70/t. 
Context

This reduction in tension is allowing oil prices like WTI and Brent to stabilize, which could signal a more conducive environment for risk assets, suggesting the market might be less vulnerable to sharp spikes in oil prices moving forward. Traders will be watching for any further clarity from Iran on the ceasefire to gauge future volatility.

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