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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude remains elevated heading into another weekend of geopolitical risk

Crude prices staying elevated amid ongoing geopolitical tensions reflect significant market risks.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 5 more headlines followed before this page went public
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Iranian Foreign Minister says he spoke with EU Foreign Policy Chief Kallas, discussed and exchanged views on the latest regional and international developments; additional information will be announced later

Japan's Top Diplomat Mimura says will not comment on FX

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude remains elevated heading into another weekend of geopolitical risk

BofA's weekly flow report notes USD 29.5bln out of cash, USD 23.0bln into stocks, USD 19.9bln into bonds, USD 1.2bln out of gold

[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 63: US frames conflict as “terminated” for War Powers Resolution while strike decisions loom

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  • In geopolitics, the Trump administration is framing hostilities with Iran as “terminated” under the War Powers Resolution due to a ceasefire, allowing it to bypass the 60-day congressional approval requirement despite ongoing tensions and historically weak enforcement of the law. Trump’s stance remains inconsistent—he alternates between suggesting a deal with Iran may or may not be necessary while firmly maintaining that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons—and he has indicated that Iran’s military capabilities are significantly degraded, though the ceasefire’s durability is uncertain. Meanwhile, CENTCOM has already presented detailed strike options, with a decision on next steps expected within days. Diplomatically, talks are stalled: Iran signals slow progress, internal disagreements are emerging within its leadership over negotiation strategy, and external actors like Israel anticipate a collapse in talks, potentially triggering escalation, including possible strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran, for its part, is preparing for “any eventuality,” adopting a defiant posture, reinforcing defences, and continuing limited military responses.
  • Crude prices remain elevated with WTI Jun between USD 104.13-106.65/bbl and Brent July towards the middle of a USD 110.33-112.45/bbl range at the time of writing. Price action this morning has been fairly muted amid broad market closures in APAC and Europe, due to the Labour Day holiday. Unlike Thursday, oil was unreactive this morning to JPY strength. (See FX for details)
  • Spot gold and silver are softer as higher crude prices keep the precious metals space pressured, with little action seen from a slide in the DXY amid a sudden surge in the JPY around 0745BST. Spot gold resides within yesterday’s USD 4,539-4,647.05/oz.
  • Base metals are mixed with 3M LME copper flat within a narrow USD 13,008.53-13,121.88/t range amid little impetus as Chinese markets were closed overnight and a large part of Europe is away.
Context

The uncertainty around the Iran situation and the potential for escalated conflict could drive further volatility in energy markets, impacting broader asset classes. Traders should be prepared for the implications this may have on both crude prices and correlated sectors like metals and FX, particularly if hostilities resurface.

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