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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude snaps lower following a tone shift by the IRGC alongside reports Iran could open Hormuz in seven days

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Luxembourg Current Account (Q2) -436M (Prev. 951M)

Iranian President Pezeshkian pledged to defend the Iranian position at the UN General Assembly speech today, Al Mamlaka reports

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude snaps lower following a tone shift by the IRGC alongside reports Iran could open Hormuz in seven days

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf says US President Trump cannot impose his power on Iran

UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.625% 2032 Gilt: b/c 3.07x (prev. 3.34x), average yield 4.843% (prev. 4.613%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.2bps)

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  • WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures have reversed earlier gains and are now sharply lower following a source report by Kyodo. The report, citing an Iranian official, stated that Iran has reportedly suggested to the US administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. The source added that there is a possibility of moving toward an agreement, but the US must demonstrate "seriousness and commitment" if diplomacy is to advance.
  • Coming alongside the Kyodo report were comments by the IRGC, saying that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate, while also assessing that the US and Israel are not prepared for a new war.
  • In the midst of the above, Brent fell from USD 97.70/bbl before the headlines to a USD 94.94/bbl low, while WTI fell from USD 93.14/bbl to a USD 90.39/bbl low. Next up, focus on the UNGA with Trump slated to speak before several bilateral meetings, including with Ukrainian President Zelensky and Gulf leaders. Tomorrow, the Iranian president is set to meet with Oman, Qatar and other Gulf leaders (full Newsquawk primer on the headline feed).
  • Dutch TTF has followed the broader energy complex lower as the prospect of progress around Hormuz reduces some of the Middle East supply risk premium. The contract has fallen from a EUR 75.22/MWh high to around EUR 72/MWh.
  • Precious metals have trimmed some of their earlier downside as energy prices and global yields fall following the more diplomatic Iranian headlines. Spot gold has recovered from a USD 4,292/oz low to above its 50 DMA (USD 4,316/oz), having earlier reached USD 4,376/oz. Spot silver similarly trades around USD 65.50/oz after falling to a USD 64.57/oz low from a USD 65.81/oz high.
  • Base metals remain firmer, with copper supported by the broader positive global risk tone, while the sharp pullback in energy prices provides some relief to the inflation and growth outlook. COMEX copper trades around USD 6.66/lb, near the upper end of its session range. 3M LME copper trades towards the upper end of a USD 14,703.60-14,790.00/t range.

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