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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Dollar firmer across the board with high-beta FX lagging and havens cushioned

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • The dollar is firmer against all of its major peers, with the Antipodeans the clear laggards and the CHF and JPY the most resilient. Focus remains squarely on the US Jobs Report, with non-farm payrolls expected to rise to 65K for October from the prior 29K, and the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.2%. DXY currently resides towards the top of a 101.45-101.98 range with resistance seen at the 101.99 mark (2nd Nov high) and the next level above that the 30th Oct peak (102.09).
  • EUR has broken beneath Thursday’s 1.1203 base, extending to a 1.1167 trough in the European morning from a 1.1235 peak. The morning’s European data has done little for the single currency, with German Industrial Production beating at 0.7% M/M (exp. 0.0%, prev. 2.0%), the French Trade Balance printing a wider-than-expected deficit of EUR 7.3bln (exp. 5.8bln, prev. 6.0bln), and Spanish Industrial Production at 2.0% Y/Y (prev. 1.3%). Price action is largely driven by the USD.
  • GBP is softer and has also printed fresh lows this morning, in a 1.3395-1.3464 band, while EUR/GBP continues to hold beneath the 0.8350 mark following Thursday’s hawkish BoE hike. BoE Governor Bailey has since said he does not agree that the UK has endemic inflation, while adding that if energy prices remain high there is a chance of another hike. Elsewhere, the Lloyds House Price Index was soft at -0.6% M/M (exp. 0.1%, prev. -0.1%) and -1.2% Y/Y (exp. -0.3%, prev. -0.1%). BoE’s Pill is due later at 12:15 GMT.
  • JPY marginally softer with USDJPY towards the upper end of a 157.26-158.18 range, again a USD story, holding the bulk of its overnight recovery. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara declined to comment on market developments, noting markets are determined by various factors, while GPIF posted a quarterly loss of JPY 5.3tln, its first in six quarters. CHF has held up better than most amid its haven properties and despite a sizeable miss in Swiss Consumer Confidence at -45 (exp. -35, prev. -36), with USD/CHF in a 0.8145-0.8185 band. Swiss FX reserves fell to CHF 758.5bln (prev. 770.3bln).
  • Antipodeans lag amid the risk aversion that reverberated from APAC into Europe, with AUD/USD down to a 0.6862 trough from a 0.6942 peak and NZD/USD printing a 0.5553 base. The antipodeans are also hit by the losses across metals.

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