[MARKET ANALYSIS] Dollar rebounds alongside yields and oil, while FOMC Minutes loom

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Dollar rebounds alongside yields and oil, while FOMC Minutes loom

Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves (Sep) 3.400T (Prev. 3.438T)

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DXY: +0.2%

  • Strengthened overnight alongside the rebound in yields and higher oil prices, while there were recent comments from Fed officials, in which Daly stated that she was very pleased and very supportive of the rate hike in September, as well as kept the door open on whether more will be needed. Furthermore, Schmid said there is still a way to go in beating inflation and that the central bank's credibility is at stake in the fight against inflation, while participants look ahead to the looming FOMC Minutes.

EUR/USD: -0.2%

  • Pared some of the prior day's gains as the dollar recovered, while the latest rhetoric from ECB officials provided little to shift the dial, while the single currency was also unaffected by reports that the French Government is willing to bypass parliament to pass billions in cuts.

GBP/USD: -0.2%

  • Pulled back following its recent advances, with price action largely driven by the dollar and US yields as catalysts for the UK remain light. Nonetheless, participants continue to look for clues on the Budget announcement later this month, with Chancellor Healey said to consider a major intervention to cut energy bills for poorer households, while Morgan Stanley has recommended shorting GBP/USD at 1.3220 with a target of 1.2850 and a stop of 1.3350 ahead of the UK Budget.

USD/JPY: +0.2%

  • Climbed higher and gained a firmer footing above the 158.00 level amid a firmer buck and higher US yields, while Labour Cash Earnings data from Japan slowed from the previous, but still topped forecasts.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD -0.1% / NZD/USD -0.2%

  • Price action is contained with mild headwinds amid the negative mood in Asia and lack of currency-moving data.

Context

A dollar bid alongside rising yields and oil fits the standard pattern of a hawkish-rates day, with the transmission running through front-end rate differentials rather than risk sentiment. FOMC Minutes in this setup are historically confirmatory: they tend to move the curve only where the record reveals a wider debate than the statement conveyed, so the tell is the distribution of views on how many participants saw further tightening as necessary, not the median. Speaker rhetoric of the kind quoted, officials stressing credibility and unfinished work on inflation, has in past cycles supported the dollar most durably when echoed across the committee rather than confined to its hawkish wing. On the crosses, USD/JPY pressing above a round level on yield support follows a sequence that has previously drawn verbal intervention from Japanese authorities, with the pace of the move mattering more than the level itself. The sterling note, a bank recommendation to short into the UK Budget, reflects a recurring pre-Budget pattern where positioning builds on fiscal headlines before the event and the currency trades the growth and borrowing arithmetic of the statement rather than its energy-support detail. Antipodean containment on a quiet regional tape is typical; the next catalysts are the Minutes themselves and any follow-through in yields.

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