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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY continues to move higher, weighing on G10 peers

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[CALENDAR UPDATE] Iranian President to speak in front of the United Nations at 19:35 Iran time (17:35 BST / 12:35 EDT), Nour News reports

The European Commission proposed lifting 2022 rule of law protective measures against Hungary, seeking to unlock EUR 4.2 bln in suspended cohesion funding and restore access to Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe

[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY continues to move higher, weighing on G10 peers

Unconfirmed reports of explosions in the Strait of Hormuz; some suggestion that four missiles have been launched towards Hormuz - UNVERIFIED

OECD 2026 GDP Forecasts: US 2.2% (prev. 2.0%), China 4.5% (prev. 4.5%), EU 1.0% (prev. 0.8%), UK 1.1% (prev. 0.9%), World 2.9% (prev. 2.8%)

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  • G10s are lower against the USD to varying degrees. USD continues to digest expectations of a more hawkish Fed, with the likes of Barkin and Collins putting forward their openness to further hikes. This is reflected in the US 2s10s spread, which has been widening for several sessions now. However, the spread is tightening a touch this morning, with focus on Trump suggesting that he would back a diesel export ban. This would no doubt put pressure on domestic prices in the US, whilst simultaneously lifting prices globally, and hence explains some of the downbeat action seen across G10 peers this morning. DXY currently trades at the upper end of a 100.54 to 100.82 range, and is now heading back to levels not seen since late July.
  • The Antipodeans underperform this morning, conforming to the negative risk tone. The EUR appears to be faring a touch better vs peers, but still remains in the red. PMI metrics this morning from France and Germany continue to indicate a resilient European economy, despite the Iran war. The French PMI report highlighted that “The pick-up in the PMI price measures seen in September should however, be watched closely, particularly as we approach the winter months, as the risk of energy price inflation spreading to other areas of the economy undoubtedly rises”. The EZ-wide report was similarly strong, with the inner report suggesting that the mixture of higher growth and rising inflation could embolden the ECB to hike once again this year.
  • Of course, geopolitics remains at the forefront of traders’ minds. On the US-Iran front, Trump noted that his top envoys had a constructive meeting with the Iranian delegation. He added that he thinks Iran will do something good. However, sources have suggested that the chance of a deal is limited, adding that obstacles remain. On the Russia-Ukraine front, Ukrainian President Zelensky asked Trump to organise a Ukraine-US-Russia trilateral meeting; Trump suggested that Putin is willing to meet.

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