[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY firms, helped by 50DMA; USD/JPY edges higher, AUD lags post-RBA minutes

  • USD benefits from underperformance in peers, despite crude benchmarks being lower and the yield environment being more constructive. DXY is higher by two-tenths after bouncing off its 50DMA @99.00. The session ahead is light, and sees remarks from Fed doves Waller and Paulson, alongside ADP weekly payrolls.
  • USD/JPY topped yesterday's high (159.08), bringing intervention fears back in focus. USD/JPY has been edging higher throughout the last c. ten sessions amid reports of a supplementary budget and oil remaining high, with Japan a net importer.
  • AUD is the G10 laggard, seemingly looking to price in the weak Chinese data on Monday as Monday’s risk-induced rally pares. Alongside the fading of the risk environment, RBA minutes overnight indicated a wait-and-see approach among members that voted for a hike, reinforcing market pricing of just c. 5bps of tightening for June 16th’s meeting. AUD/USD resumes its slide from 0.7200 on Friday, looks now to 0.7100, around 10-15 pips below. Kiwi fares a little better, AUD/NZD -0.2% and retreating from recent highs, looks to 1.2140/20 support.
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