[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY flat after crude bid loses steam, Antipodeans lead on China stimulus hopes, GBP awaits Burnham

Newsquawk Staff · 20 Jul 2026, 09:27 UTC

G10s are mixed, but mostly firmer against the Buck with FX-specific catalysts light, and geopolitics not giving much of a bias. Antipodeans lead after reports of potential Chinese stimulus, GBP performs well into Burnham's appointment as PM.
USD continues to be driven by geopolitics, with the Greenback reversing earlier gains in tandem with Energy Benchmarks after Iran’s Foreign Ministry noted the nation is open to returning to talks. Aside from this, fresh drivers are light with last week’s inflation (PPI/CPI) in focus ahead of PCE, with the data slate light in the remainder of this week. DXY saw a modest bid at the Sunday re-open to a 100.80 peak, though reversed as mentioned, to a 100.65 trough.
Burnham is set to become UK PM after midday today. The main focus for GBP is whether he confirms Mahmood as Chancellor, after UK press widely reported last week that she would take the job, alongside any remarks around public control in the water/energy sector, and how this would be funded. In other reporting, Streeting is said to be in discussion for Defence Minister; Burnham would retain a ban on new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea, and in an interview with the Times, he said he plans to cut energy bills and noted the tax-free personal allowance (details light). Sterling is one of the best G10 performers today, sitting around 0.85 in the EUR cross and below 1.35 in Cable. The UK calendar today is light; the week sees LFS and Inflation data.
Antipodeans are the best performers alongside a broad bid in Chinese assets, where its leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures at the Politburo meeting this month. AUD/USD, NZD/USD +0.3%.

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 21 Oct, 10:29 UTC · what it led with

Pakistan Army Chief Munir brought the "final warning" from the United States to Iranian officials, which called on Iran to submit to the US demands for concessions on the nuclear issue before taking any other steps.
The UK government has approved the Jackdaw North Sea gas field.

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Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%
Mediation efforts said that "Qatar and Pakistan presented a 'compromise proposal' that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
WTI crude−4.6%
"A breakthrough is expected to be announced this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing a source.
WTI crude−1.1%

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