[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY is steady in uneventful overnight FX trade but holds on to recent spoils

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY is steady in uneventful overnight FX trade but holds on to recent spoils

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DXY: Flat

  • Trades little changed during Asia-Pac hours but holds on to the prior day's spoils after predominantly gaining against its peers after benefiting amid the choppy risk sentiment, while there was an abundance of Fed speakers, including Jefferson, who suggested they could take more time to decide the next rate move, as giving more time to consider the data would allow the Fed to make a better decision on rates, while Bowman also sees no urgent need for more rate moves this year. Furthermore, Kashkari said he does not have a strong view on an October rate hike and is open-minded about the pace of further tightening, while Logan said the policy rate needs to increase an additional 50bps or more and that without higher rates, inflation will not get to the 2% goal. In terms of the data, the recent releases were somewhat mixed as the ISM Manufacturing headline missed, but the closely watched Prices component jumped, Initial Claims were little changed, and Challenger layoffs eased slightly in September, while all attention turns to the looming US NFP report.

EUR/USD: Flat

  • Price action is constrained after recently underperforming as it gave way to CHF and dollar strength, while the US was said to have warned France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a possible export ban.

GBP/USD: Flat

  • Lingers near a 3-month trough around the 1.3200 level after retreating throughout the prior day, while there was little reaction seen to reports that UK PM Burnham is leaving the door open to a snap general election next year.

USD/JPY: -0.1%

  • Trades relatively sideways as participants digest the latest data from Japan, which showed a surprise uptick in the Unemployment Rate and an acceleration in Tokyo-area CPI.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD Flat / NZD/USD Flat

  • Conformed to the uneventful overnight trade in the absence of pertinent data and amid the mixed risk appetite.

Context

Consolidative sessions of this kind, where the dollar holds prior gains on thin Asia-Pac liquidity, are the standard pattern ahead of a major US labour print: ranges compress, positioning is squared, and the burden of proof shifts entirely to the data. The hawkish tilt in the latest run of Fed commentary matters mainly for how the next payrolls release is framed; when officials lean toward higher-for-longer or further tightening, an upside surprise tends to find an amplified front-end and dollar response, while a miss is more readily faded as positioning is already aligned with the hawks. The mixed data backdrop, a soft ISM headline against a firm prices-paid component, is a recurring late-cycle combination that has historically kept the rates market focused on the inflation pipe rather than the activity signal. In the crosses, cable sitting near a multi-month trough on political noise and USD/JPY digesting firmer Tokyo inflation against a softer labour print both fit the established pattern of domestic stories being subordinated to the US calendar until the event risk clears. The tell for the next leg is whether the dollar retains its bid after the payrolls print or whether the move proves positioning-driven and unwinds.

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