US President Trump says regarding Iran that maybe we'll make a deal, maybe we won't

Deliberately non-committal remarks of this kind are a recurring feature of negotiating cycles around Iran, where statements from the US side have historically swung between maximal pressure and openness to a deal, sometimes within the same news cycle. The channel that matters is crude: Iranian supply expectations and the risk premium embedded in Brent and WTI have tended to price on the perceived probability of either escalation or sanctions relief, with gold catching a secondary bid when rhetoric hardens. The distinction worth drawing is between rhetorical positioning, which has usually faded, and verifiable steps such as delegations meeting, shipping or insurance disruptions in the Gulf, or sanctions waivers, which is where durable repricing has occurred. This President's prior form is high-volume, low-information signalling on this file, so single headlines have tended to move energy and haven FX at the margin and mean-revert. The tells are any confirmation of talks, movement in tanker freight and insurance rates, and whether official Iranian channels respond in kind.