[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY loses steam at 100.00, JPY on intervention watch and Antipodeans outperform

G10s are mixed against the Buck despite surging oil prices. Antipodeans lead, and CHF lags.
DXY is a touch firmer today with oil prices rallying after Iran and Israel exchange missile fire. In short, Israel struck Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, and Iran retaliated with both sides exchanging multiple missiles throughout the morning. USD upside today is capped ahead of the 100.00 mark in the Dollar Index, the last time this level was seen was March 2026. In addition to the crude bid, the Buck is being helped in continued Fed repricing after a strong US Jobs report Friday pushed market expectations of tightening from 16bps to a full 25bps hike by year-end. With the Fed in blackout, the docket is quiet today with just NY Fed SCE scheduled.
Rest of the FX space is indecisive. Antipodeans are mildly firmer against the Buck despite domestic newsflow light and Australian participants on holiday. JPY is a touch firmer in choppy trade as intervention fears loom around 160.00, while NOK was earlier helped by energy benchmarks, though now unchanged against both USD and SEK, as NOK/SEK tests 1.0000 to the downside.
EUR is a touch lower against the Buck as it stabilises after post-NFP weakness. EUR/USD currently supported by 1.1500, with the APAC low of 1.1508. The highlight of the week is Thursday’s ECB decision, where the governing council is widely expected to lift its key rate by 25bps. ING writes in its morning note that support in the 1.14/15 region has a chance of holding this summer. EUR/USD -0.1%, testing the aforementioned lows at the time of writing.