Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 23rd September 2026

• US Envoy Witkoff said mediators will continue their work, and he hopes talks will be constructive and promising. 
• However, US sources told Al Hadath that the chance of a deal is limited and major disputes and obstacles remain.
• US equity futures give back earlier gains as focus turns to the Trump-Xi meeting.
• DXY bids higher despite lower energy prices; EUR little moved following broadly stronger PMI metrics.
• Fixed income benchmarks trade rangebound, as energy lacks a clear direction (Brent +0.3%).
• Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P PMIs Flash (Sep), SARB Policy Announcement. UN Meetings include Trump-Sharif meeting, Senior Iranian leaders-GCC meeting, Iranian President Pezeshkian address. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone & Lane, Fed's Barr. Supply from the US.

SNAPSHOT

STOCKS
Euro Stoxx 50	-0.2%	DAX40	-0.5%
Stoxx 600	-0.1%	FTSE 100	-0.1%
ES Dec'26	+0.1%	RTY Dec'26	-0.3%
NQ Dec'26	U/C	YM Dec'26	U/C

FX
DXY	+0.3% (100.88)	EUR/USD	-0.4% (1.1408)
USD/JPY	+0.3% (157.86)	GBP/USD	-0.5% (1.3280)

BONDS
US T-Note Dec'26	+2 ticks	Bund Dec'26	-15 ticks
US 10yr Yield	4.963%	German 10yr Yield	3.466%

ENERGY & METALS
WTI Nov'26	-0.6%	Brent Dec'26	+0.3%
Spot Gold	-1.0%	LME Copper	-0.3%

CRYPTO
Bitcoin	-0.4%	Ethereum	-0.8%

As of 11:10BST / 06:10EDT

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) initially started Wednesday's trading session entirely in the green but have pared slightly, now pointing to a mixed picture. Traders note the widening of London gasoil/NY Heating Oil spread as a catalyst for the pullback in equities, after US President Trump said he would back a pause to American diesel exports. European gas prices are expected to rise and, as a result, weigh on margins as costs increase.
• Sectors lack a clear bias, with breadth quite narrow. Banks top the sector pile, with Financial Services and Energy rounding out the sector gainers. To the downside is Insurance, with Real Estate and Telecoms following closely behind.
• US equity futures are mixed, with RTY (-0.2%) the modest underperformer. Focus heading towards the latter part of the week will be on the Trump-Xi meeting, scheduled for Thursday.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

FX

• G10s are lower against the USD to varying degrees. USD continues to digest expectations of a more hawkish Fed, with the likes of Barkin and Collins putting forward their openness to further hikes. This is reflected in the US 2s10s spread, which has been widening for several sessions now. However, the spread is tightening a touch this morning, with focus on Trump suggesting that he would back a diesel export ban. This would no doubt put pressure on domestic prices in the US, whilst simultaneously lifting prices globally, and hence explains some of the downbeat action seen across G10 peers this morning. DXY currently trades at the upper end of a 100.54 to 100.89 range, and is now heading back to levels not seen since late July.
• The Antipodeans underperform this morning, conforming to the negative risk tone. The EUR appears to be faring a touch better vs peers, but still remains in the red. PMI metrics this morning from France and Germany continue to indicate a resilient European economy, despite the Iran war. The French PMI report highlighted that “The pick-up in the PMI price measures seen in September should, however, be watched closely, particularly as we approach the winter months, as the risk of energy price inflation spreading to other areas of the economy undoubtedly rises”. The EZ-wide report was similarly strong, with the inner report suggesting that the mixture of higher growth and rising inflation could embolden the ECB to hike once again this year.

FIXED INCOME

• A firmer start for fixed income given the overnight energy moderation after the broadly constructive US-Iran update has given way to mixed performance but with a clear negative skew as WTI and Brent pick up alongside increasing focus on product prices/spreads after US President Trump’s comments regarding a diesel ban; see the Commodity-focused update for more detail.
• Initially, USTs got to a 106-08+ peak with gains of c. seven ticks. Since then, the benchmark has faded to near-enough unchanged over the European morning, hit by the mentioned energy upside as we digest Trump’s commentary and also unverified reports of explosions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Within Europe, the action and drivers have been the same. Bunds got to an early 121.38 peak, firmer by near 20 ticks, before falling into the red by around half of that and losing the 121.00 handle. Adding to this is a generally strong set of EZ Flash PMIs, though German & French Manufacturing were weak. Further, the series also spoke to fresh inflationary pressures; points that have added to the bearish skew in recent trade.
• Gilts opened with modest gains and then climbed to an 86.04 peak, firmer by just over 30 ticks, before fading as above and moving marginally into the red. No move to the Flash PMIs, where the Manufacturing was strong while both Composite and Services were soft. From the series, the signs of slower growth are notable and one to watch ahead, as it may temper the hawkish impulses that were evident at the last BoE meeting, making the November meeting even more of one to watch.
• Germany sells EUR 1.65bln vs Exp. 2bln 3.40% 2047 and 2.90% 2056 Bund.
• Australia sells AUD 1.0bln 4.75% October 2037 bonds: b/c 4.16x, avg. yield 5.296%.

COMMODITIES

• Focus for energy markets are three-fold. 1) US President Trump suggesting that he would back a ban on diesel exports. 2) A seemingly constructive bilateral meeting between Trump and Zelensky. 3) US envoys meeting with the Iranian delegation, which has been called “very productive”.
• On the first point. Trump has touted that he would back a ban on diesel exports, in a bid to ease domestic prices. Treasury Sec Bessent confirmed that officials were assessing the feasibility of either a partial or full ban of exports. This will impact downstream operations, and therefore, the reaction is made evident in the heating oil spread between Europe vs US; currently at USD 36.50/mt, yesterday’s close at USD -56/mt.
• As for geopolitics, the mood music has been positive on both the Russia-Ukraine, and US-Iran front. On the former, Ukrainian President Zelensky asked Trump to organise a Ukraine-US-Russia trilateral meeting; Trump suggested that Putin is willing to meet. Separately, CNN reported that Ukraine is ready to sign a defence deal with the US this week, but it may be postponed until the US is ready. On the US-Iran front, Trump noted that his top envoys had a constructive meeting with the Iranian delegation. He added that he thinks Iran will do something good. However, some sources familiar with the talks have dampened the recent optimism. Iran has not changed its position, whilst a US source believes that the chance of a deal is limited and major disputes and obstacles remain.
• Given the optimism surrounding geopolitics, crude benchmarks were initially lower this morning, but have since moved off worst levels to trade with incremental losses/flat. WTI is a touch lower and trades towards the upper end of a USD 88.71-90.52/bbl range, whilst Brent trades with incremental gains in a USD 94.08-96.11/bbl range.
• Spot gold is trading with losses of around a percent, and currently holds at the lower end of a USD 4,315.51-4,369.56/oz range. The yellow-metal is currently eyeing its 100-DMA (USD 4,313/oz), and further pressure could see gold hit its 50-DMA at USD 4,306.88/oz, ahead of the key USD 4,300/oz mark. Pressure today comes amidst a stronger USD and elevated front-end yields. Elsewhere, base metals are broadly in the red this morning, conforming to the downbeat risk tone. 3M LME Copper (-0.1%) currently holds towards the mid-point of a USD 14,666.28-14,862/t range.
• US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.8mln (exp. -0.6mln), Gasoline -2.2mln (exp. +0.2mln), Distillate -2.2mln (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing +2.1mln.
• Iraqi Oil Minister said oil export volumes reached 70mln bbls in August and they are currently exporting more than 3mln bpd.
• Iranian Deputy Oil Minister for Planning said that around 50% of damaged capacity at South Pars has returned to service and production has resumed, according to Fars news.
• Ukraine Energy Minister met US Energy Secretary Wright to discuss energy security and the impact of the war, emphasising the importance of diplomatic efforts to achieve an energy truce.
• Spain is reportedly mulling capping gas prices to curb power bills, according to Cinco Dias.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• OECD 2026 GDP Forecasts: US 2.2% (prev. 2.0%), China 4.5% (prev. 4.5%), EU 1.0% (prev. 0.8%), UK 1.1% (prev. 0.9%), World 2.9% (prev. 2.8%).
• Global banking executives warned against a UK windfall tax and that they will divert investment away from the UK if taxes on the sector are raised, according to FT.
• The European Commission proposed lifting 2022 rule of law protective measures against Hungary, seeking to unlock EUR 4.2 bln in suspended cohesion funding and restore access to Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe.
• The German Finance Ministry is reportedly considering a review of takeover law, with reference to "lowball" or "dumping" offers, according to Handelsblatt.
• Germany's IG Metall said they demand a 5% pay increase in the electrical sector, with regional talks to start on October 7th and warns of possible strikes from November 1st.
• The Swiss Upper House backed the 90% CET1 foreign unit backing by UBS (UBSG SW).
• Italy reportedly plans to stick with its commitment to keep deficit beneath the EU's 3% GDP ceiling this year, according to sources.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• UK S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 51.7 vs. Exp. 52 (Prev. 52.5).
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 52 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.7).
• UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Sep) 52 vs. Exp. 52 (Prev. 52.5).
• European S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 53.1 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 52.0).
• European S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52.6 (Prev. 52.7).
• European S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Sep) 53 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.6).
• German S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 53.8 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 51.8).
• German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 53.8 vs. Exp. 54 (Prev. 54.3).
• German S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Sep) 52.9 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 49.7).
• French S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 51.2 vs Exp. 48.7 (Prev. 48.5).
• French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 50.3 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 51.1).
• French S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Sep) 51.4 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 48.0).

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Nagel said oil prices are not the only indicator, but have become more relevant over the past four years, while he is not so concerned by labour market developments and said monetary policy is being conducted between structural ambiguity and forward guidance. Furthermore, he does not see much uncertainty in markets about what drives the ECB's policymaking decisions, as well as noted that rates are still in neutral territory and cannot exclude needing to go into mildly restrictive territory.
• ECB's Makhlouf said second-round effects are not being seen yet.
• NBP's Kotecki said we are approaching a serious discussion about an interest rate hike, possibly in November, adding that if interest rates are increased, it will be in small steps.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• NY Fed's Perli said Fed's Reserve Management purchases are not on a pre-set course and that the central clearing of Fed repo operations would have benefits, while Perli added that the monetary policy toolkit has been working well and the Fed's reserve forecasting process is robust.
• Punchbowl, citing US lawmakers/advisers, outlined that "the electoral climate for President Donald Trump and Republican leaders have worsened dramatically" over the last few weeks.
• US Democratic Senators are introducing a bill to allow first-time homebuyers to get up to USD 50k for a house down-payment, according to Axios.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• US Envoy Witkoff said mediators will continue their work, and he hopes talks will be constructive and promising, while he confirmed he engaged in lengthy talks with the delegation from Iran.
• A US source attending the Iranian delegation meeting said the chance of a deal is limited and major disputes and obstacles remain between the US and Iranian delegations, according to Al Hadath.
• Diplomatic sources suggest that "Yesterday's talks between the US and Iran did not achieve the minimum required to resume negotiations", Hayom reported.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said engagement with the US took place through a Qatari mediator to convey Iran’s conditions, Nour news reported.
• Iranian state media noted that Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi met with US envoy Witkoff at the UN General Assembly, with Tehran saying that the talk centered on its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iranian source said Qatar's PM is acting as an intermediary between Iran and the US in New York and that the substance of Iran's position is unchanged amid US dialogue, according to an Amwaj reporter.
• Diplomatic source in Tehran said a meeting between Iranian President Pezeshkian and US President Trump on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly is not on the agenda, journalist Kais reported citing Al-Akhbar.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that Foreign Minister Araghchi met with his Austrian counterpart and the two sides discussed and exchanged views on the most important international and regional developments, as well as bilateral issues of concern to both countries. Araghchi also met with his Iraqi counterpart and reviewed the progress of cooperation between the two countries in various fields, including economic, trade, consular, and security, and emphasised the continuation of efforts to develop relations in all areas of interest to the two countries.
• Explosions were heard near Iran's Qeshm Island, which seemed to have originated from the sea, and there was no impact inside the territory of Qeshm Island, according to IRNA.
• French President Macron said France is ready to participate in an international operation of a defensive nature to protect navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to ABC News.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russia's Kremlin said ground for peace talks with Ukraine are still not in place and no concrete details of any plans of a high-level meeting on Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky asked US President Trump for a winter arms package and expects an energy ceasefire push, according to WSJ.
• Ukraine is ready to sign a landmark drone defence deal with the United States on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week, although it may be at a later date when the US is ready to sign, according to CBS News citing sources.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said that intelligence information indicates that Russia is preparing a massive attack on Ukraine.
• Russia said its forces hit Ukrainian defence and energy facilities and logistics centres, while Russian forces hit a cargo ship in the Black Sea

OTHER

• US President Trump's Board of Peace will unveil a six-month USD 2.45bln recovery plan for Gaza in its meeting with members on Wednesday, Axios reported citing sources.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Greenland is critical to US national security and that the US cannot risk China or Russia establishing bases there.
• Taiwan is to maintain close contact with the US on arms sales.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin extended above USD 87k early in the European session before falling below USD 86k as the session continues amid a firmer dollar.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed following the similar handover from the US, despite the recent decline in oil prices and optimism regarding diplomacy after US President Trump announced that envoys had a 'very productive' meeting with the Iranian delegation on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. However, he also threatened that they may have to blow up Pickaxe Mountain and will attack if they see activity, as well as commented that he has a big decision to make between allowing Iran to rebuild or to "annihilate" Iran.
• ASX 200 was rangebound with demand contained amid rate hike expectations and following weaker Flash PMI data from Australia, in which headline Manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction territory.
• KOSPI gained after the tech-related momentum in the US, where the NDX printed an all-time high.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following today's PBoC liquidity drain and as reports that Chinese President Xi is unlikely to bring Chinese CEOs to his summit with US President Trump temper expectations for major business deals.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Hong Kong Finance Secretary Chan affirmed no intention to change HKD peg to USD, adding that Hong Kong will remain an open and free economy, while fixed income will be a very big part of Hong Kong.
• Japan's PM Takaichi said she agreed with US President Trump regarding further strengthening economic security ties and notes the desire for Japan to host an AI summit, while she is pursuing an ever close alliance with the US.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

• Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 50.8 (Prev. 52.7).
• Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 49.3 (Prev. 52.0).
• Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Sep) 51.4 (Prev. 53.2).
• Indian HSBC Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 56.5 (Prev. 54.3).
• Indian HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 55.7 (Prev. 52.8).
• Indian HSBC Services PMI Flash (Sep) 55.8 (Prev. 54.1).
• Singapore Core CPI (Aug YY) 2.20% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.00%).
• Singapore CPI (Aug YY) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.2%).