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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY slips below 98.00 handle, Cable gains heading into the local elections

The DXY slipping below the 98.00 level indicates a weakening dollar, likely influenced by market anticipation surrounding geopolitical events, particularly concerning Iran.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 1 more headline followed before this page went public
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  • DXY slips back below the 98.00 handle, despite a lack of newsflow. This comes as markets await Iran’s response to the US’s proposal. Currently, the DXY continues to extend on session lows. 
  • EUR/USD benefits from the softer dollar, regaining the 1.1750 level. However, the current price is still far below Wednesday’s peak of 1.1797 as the geopols continue to be the main driver for the Euro. 
  • GBP/USD extends above the 1.3600 handle, heading into the UK local elections. It is expected that Labour and the Conservatives are expected to see significant losses, of over 20pps in some areas, according to YouGov’s MRP. Reform UK, and to a lesser extent, The Greens are expected to benefit, though many of the councils, and particularly so in London, are expected to see close races (see full Newsquawk preview on the headline feed). 
  • USD/JPY consolidates at the lower end of its 156.03-156.53 range, as Japanese participants return from their public holiday. Japan’s Chief FX Diplomat Mimura made comments earlier in the session; however refused to comment on FX intervention and reiterated that FX is being closely watched. USD/JPY did see some fleeting pressure as Mimura spoke. BoJ minutes from its March meeting failed to spur a reaction in the JPY. 
  • Antipodeans  continue to outperform its G10 peers due to its high-beta characteristics. 
Context

As the dollar softens, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are gaining traction, with the latter moving higher ahead of local elections in the UK, suggesting shifts in political sentiment might be impacting currency dynamics. This trend is important as it highlights the interplay between currency strength and external events, potentially shaping trade flows and risk appetite in the markets.

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