[MARKET ANALYSIS] EUR outperforms vs. CEE; lack of bias elsewhere into US Payrolls

Newsquawk Staff · 7 Aug 2026, 09:11 UTC

Very quiet action in G10FX ahead of this afternoon's NFP.
DXY flat against all G10 peers (ex. Scandis) ahead of US Payrolls, trading just below 100.00 as it did throughout APAC. Expectations are for the US economy to have added 88K nonfarm payrolls in July, up from June’s 57K, with the unemployment rate seen holding steady at 4.2%. Some desks also flag the possibility of large revisions given survey modelling factors. Compiling banks' scenario analysis, the likely reaction will be the typical dovish on a soft headline print and hawkish on a hot figure. GS and JPM flag the unwinding of World Cup-related hiring and a rebound in labour force participation which could skew July toward softer payrolls. Deutsche Bank summarises, "In summary, if the labour market data remain stable as we expect, Fed officials will be left with one side of its dual mandate to focus on inflation.", a view more in line with FT sources citing Governor Warsh's focus on incoming inflation data as reported on Thursday.
Scandis are modestly outperforming today, EUR/SEK and EUR/SEK finding further sellers both below 11.00. Guidance at the Norges Bank decision next week could further cement a hike later in the year and increase appetite for carry. EUR/SEK may remain in tighter ranges with the 50 DMA above at 10.99, and 100DMA below at 10.92. EUR/NOK is below all significant DMAs, with the 100DMA above at 11.00.
Action is quiet elsewhere. EUR outperforms vs. most CEE currencies after a somewhat dovish CNB meeting on Thursday, while HUF reacts to soft July inflation data which fell beneath previous and the NBH's forecast.

What our latest note said

EU Market Open, 23 Oct, 06:20 UTC · what it led with

APAC equities were under pressure, mostly following the negative tech-led Wall St. handover; European futures now point to a contained open.
USD modestly firmer vs major peers, EUR awaits Moody's and weekend French activity while the NZD made a marginal recovery.

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