[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses mixed, KER FP and RMS FP suffer as the Middle East conflict hit earnings; US equity futures flat

  • European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) point to a mixed picture, primarily driven by diverging earnings. The CAC 40 (-0.5%) is the big underperformer following losses in luxury names (Hermes, Kering), while the AEX (+0.4%) outperforms as ASML (+1.6%) gains.
  • Sectors fail to point to any directional bias. Technology tops the pile, primarily helped by ASML’s 32.61% weighting in the sector, while Consumer Products & Services is the clear laggard.
  • As mentioned above, Q1 earnings reports by ASML, Kering and Hermes have been of focus this morning. Starting with Europe’s most valuable company, ASML reported sales that beat estimates while also raising its FY26 revenue guidance. The CEO highlighted that demand for chips is outpacing supply and that order intake continues to be very strong. Despite the strong report, shares initially fell slightly at the open, possibly on the softer Q2 sales guidance, but has reversed course since.
  • The luxury sector continues to have a poor Q1. Kering reported revenue that came in line with expectations; however, Gucci comparable revenue printed at -8% (exp. -4.28%) while also highlighting troubles in the Middle East, with retail revenue falling 11% in Q1 in the region. For Hermes, Q1 revenue missed estimates while also highlighting weakness in the Middle East (-5.9% in revenue at constant FX).
  • Other key movers include Stellantis, gaining after reporting growth in shipments, and Barratt Redrow, in which the Co. highlighted that Q3 performance was solid and expects the Middle East conflict to have limited impact on FY26 performance.
  • US equity futures are trading around the unchanged mark, with a flurry of Fed speakers and earnings from Morgan Stanley and BofA later today.
Context

European bourses are mixed, reflecting diverging earnings results, particularly in the luxury sector where Kering and Hermes have faced headwinds tied to the Middle East conflict, each reporting weaker revenues. Meanwhile, ASML's robust earnings and increased FY26 guidance underline strong demand in the tech sector, which may offer some balance to the overall market sentiment. This divergence highlights risk-specific dynamics that traders should monitor closely, especially given the potential implications for future earnings and investor sentiment.

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