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[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses slip as markets digest recent US-Iran flare-up

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses slip as markets digest recent US-Iran flare-up

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  • European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) are broadly lower this morning as markets digest the recent flare-up between the US and Iran. In brief, the US struck Iranian military bases, whilst the IRGC responded with its own attacks on US air bases. Furthermore, Iran’s Navy stated it forced four vessels to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz by firing warning shots. Aside from these flare-up, updates since have been lacking – with markets tentatively waiting for whether this round of strikes will lead to further escalation. As a reminder, Iran has taken the position that further strikes on its land will lead to a war outside of the region.
  • European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Tech leads, followed closely by Energy, whilst Media and Healthcare lag. Tech appears to be rebounding from recent losses, with fundamental drivers lacking, despite the higher yield environment; action potentially driven by post-earnings strength in Snowflake, whilst Marvell’s headline metrics were strong (discussed below).
  • In terms of key movers: BT (-3%, FT reports that the UK would block Bharti’s stake increase), L’Oreal (+1.2%, upgraded at Berenberg), Adyen (-1.9%, CFO to step down), SSE (U/C, higher FY26 prelim. profit, and raised guidance).
  • US equity futures are in the red this morning, following the action seen in APAC/European trade. The day ahead is packed with key US data, including US PCE (Apr), GDP 2nd estimate and jobless claims. Previewing PCE in brief, following hotter than expected CPI and PPI reports, analysts updated econometric models point to April core PCE inflation of between +0.3-0.4% M/M (prev. +0.3%). In terms of pre-market movers: HP (-2.2%, strong headline metrics, though downgraded its FY outlook), Marvell (-1.5%, headline metrics beat and provided upbeat outlook; though highlighted supply chain constraints), Snowflake (+35%, secures a USD 6bln Amazon deal).

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