[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed benchmarks are tentatively firmer as geopolitical tensions ease

Global fixed benchmarks are mildly firmer this morning, benefiting from lower energy prices as recent geopolitical tensions ease for the time being. In brief, Israel and Iran have agreed to halt their strikes, though recent reports have suggested that Southern Lebanon remains under fire. Trump has continued to talk up the mood, stating that a total victory will be declared in two weeks. For reference, this marks the 37th time he has suggested that a deal is imminent, CNN reported.
USTs (+1+ ticks) are slightly firmer and trade within a 108-27+ to 109-03 range. As above, action is facilitated by lower energy prices, but with trade tentative amidst the uncertain environment. Also clouding the picture is the hawkish economic picture, with the recent NFP report pointing towards a solid labour market. US CPI and PPI (Wed/Thu) will play key roles for policymakers heading into next week’s policy decision. As for today, traders will digest US ADP Weekly Change, Exports/Imports, Atlanta Fed GDP, and Wholesale Inventories (Apr).
Bunds (+7 ticks) and Gilts (10 ticks) also trade modestly higher, but with price action rangebound. In Germany, Industrial Production increased from the prior, but still remains at low levels; trade data displayed a mixed picture. Oxford Economics wrote that “Today's prints are broadly consistent with mild Q2 contraction in German GDP as manufacturing output continues to disappoint”.
Over in the UK, BRC Retail Sales in May topped expectations (3.4% vs exp. 0.6%), indicating that consumers have remained resilient despite the Iran conflict; though, some of that spending may be related to the good weather experienced in the region. As for politics, UK PM candidate Burnham is reportedly poised to delay any Labour leadership bid until after the battle to retain the Greater Manchester mayoralty. Perhaps a politically favourable move, given it shows the Mancunians his support for the region, whilst also showing Labour peers that he is willing to help the party win in Manchester. Nonetheless, Gilts have not taken much notice of this report, as attention remains firmly on whether Burnham can win the Makerfield by-election next week. Gilts trade in a 87.53 to 87.69 range.