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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed benchmarks consolidate following Wednesday's surge higher driven by lower energy prices

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed benchmarks consolidate following Wednesday's surge higher driven by lower energy prices

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  • Global fixed benchmarks are softer across the board, albeit only modestly. This does come after the benchmarks surged in Wednesday's session, causing yields to break key markers, as energy prices continued to fall.
  • USTs (-3 ticks) have pulled back from Wednesday's and Today's peak of 110-01, with 10yr yields slipping below the support level of 4.422%. Despite the positive 2-year auction on Tuesday, it failed to feed through to the 5-year tap. A busy data docket is ahead, with Core PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) expected to hold steady at 3.3% Y/Y. Final Q1 GDP is also expected to remain unchanged at 1.6%. Initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, Atlanta Fed GDP and a 7-year auction are also on the docket.
  • Bunds (-2 ticks) and Gilts (-10 ticks) are also softer, but off worst levels. For German debt, its Q3 issuance plan was left unchanged, looking to raise EUR 138bln in the quarter. Bunds were unreactive following the announcement. ECB's Schnabel was on the wires this morning, reiterating her stance that the ECB will need to raise rates further to bring back inflation to 2%, while stating that although the short-term situation looks better than expected, the ceasefire is no reason for policymakers to let their guard down. For Gilts, although they were unreactive, the Guardian reported that some senior officials are pushing incoming-PM Burnham to issue GBP 20bln of "war bonds" to pay for higher defence spending. We are now attentive to specifics around the duration and magnitude of any theoretical issuance.
  • JGBs (+5 ticks) consolidated, with a poor 20-year auction capping the upside. The b/c ratio dropped to 2.97, below the prior 4.01x and 12-month average. No significant move seen to hawkish BoJ speak overnight.

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