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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed firmer on the session and WTD, looking ahead to NFP and the US cash equity open for the next AI/tech move

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • A modestly firmer start to the final session of a pivotal week for fixed income. USTs bid by a handful of ticks at most, after rallying over the last two sessions given the US midterms and the AI/tech selloff that ultimately followed. Currently, matching the 107-16 WTD peak from Thursday, and back to levels from mid-September.
  • For yields, the week has seen pressure across the curve. The short/medium buckets hit by the energy pullback, paring of global central bank tightening expectations and the near term read across from the stock selloff and associated growth implications, with a deadlocked US government given a Dem. Congress and Rep. President also factoring. Further out, the same points are an influence, in addition to the hints in the QRA toward a move away from the long-end, continuing a global trend.
  • Of course, it is premature to assess the week as a whole, with the October NFP report due in the next few hours; full Newsquawk preview available.
  • Bunds about 20 ticks firmer, with the narrative much the same as that outlined for USTs. Benefitting today from the ongoing modest energy pullback we are seeing globally, and particularly within Europe where Dutch TTF is lower by nearly EUR 3/MWh as it stands. Currently, in the upper half of 123.06-53 parameters.
  • Gilts in line. Firmer by about 15 ticks but well within Thursday’s band and some 50 ticks off that session’s high. For the most part, participants have been digesting a BoE that was much more hawkish than expected on face value, and has a clear bias towards further tightening; however, Bailey made very clear that this could be reassessed depending on the Middle East/energy situation. Though, pipeline price pressures mean another hike is likely the base case, with the debate now between a back-to-back in December, or waiting until February’s forecast gathering.

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