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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed income benchmarks softer ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's appearance at Sintra

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed income benchmarks softer ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's appearance at Sintra

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  • Global fixed income benchmarks are softer across the board, given Tuesday's post-settlement selloff. However, price action across the board has been range-bound, as markets look ahead to Fed Chair Warsh's first public appearance and updates from the US-Iran indirect Doha talks.
  • Bunds (-17 ticks) have found support at the 127.00 handle, finding some stability after Tuesday's weakness, which was primarily driven by USTs. EZ inflation printed cooler than expected, with the headline figure at 2.8% Y/Y from 3.2% (exp. 3.0%) and ex-E, F, A & T dipping to 2.4% Y/Y from 2.6% (exp. 2.6%). A figure that would be welcomed by the ECB is the dip in services inflation, to 3.2% Y/Y from 3.5%; but, above April's 3.0% rate. Bunds did see some fleeting upside following the data, notching a new session high of 127.23 before falling back into the prior established daily range. ECB policymakers should find some comfort from the report, with some GC members starting to sound a bit more cautious on further rate hikes. ECB's Wunsch, who is seen as hawkish, said to Econostream that the case for further tightening is receding and stated that stronger second-round effects would be needed to justify further tightening.
  • USTs (-8 ticks) oscillate in a narrow 109-18 to 109-23 band ahead of comments by Fed Chair Warsh at Sintra and the US jobs report on Thursday. Since his first remarks at the FOMC press conference, core PCE printed at 3.4% Y/Y, consumer confidence has surprised to the upside, and May payrolls printed strong (June payrolls due on Thursday). Given the backdrop, it would be hard for Warsh to soften his hawkish tone.
  • OATs (-21 ticks) follow their European peers, but will come into greater focus as we near the Presidential elections in 2027. A date for the first round of elections has reportedly been set for April 18th 2027, with a run-off set for May 2nd. The current President, Macron, cannot run in this election.

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