[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed makes a limited recovery as Brent retreates from USD 100/bbl, Flash PMIs for July are yet to capture the recent extension

Episodes of this kind have tended to produce a two-stage repricing, with the initial print faded or ignored and the revision and the following month's flash carrying the signal, particularly on the input and output price balances rather than the headline composite. The fixed income pattern here, yields tracking Brent tick for tick, is the standard energy-driven inflation-premium channel, and the tell for whether it persists is whether the bid in duration survives a stabilisation in crude or proves to be purely a function of the pullback. The wedge between US and European benchmarks is worth noting: USTs remain materially lower on the week despite the recovery, while Bunds and Gilts have round-tripped, which historically reflects differing degrees of central bank sensitivity to energy-led inflation. Follow-ons are the final PMI reads, the preliminary GDP prints flagged for the following week, and whether official commentary begins to reference energy passthrough, the point at which a contained market move has tended to become a policy-relevant one.