[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed relatively contained awaiting updates on the AI, geopolitical and policy fronts

A modestly bullish start to the session, amid energy downside and some early equity pressure in Nvidia indications hitting the broader tech space, with NQ -0.9% at most. However, this has since moderated to a mixed/bearish performance, with fixed faltering somewhat as energy comes off lows and the NQ returns to unchanged.
USTs in relatively modest 106-30 to 107-07+ confines, but now essentially flat within that. The day ahead for the US features supply and a handful of data points, but it will primarily be focused on tech and geopolitics. See equities and commodities respectively for more.
For Bunds the narrative has been much the same, lower by about 15 ticks as things stand, holding around the 123.00 handle in 122.91 to 123.29 confines. Focus for the bloc is on a meeting of EU officials regarding the next ECB President; though, an announcement is not expected until the Council gathering at the end of the month. de Cos and Knot remain the two main contenders, the latter speaking to the FT overnight.
Gilts in-fitting, marginally outperforming on account of the pressure seen in energy and potentially in anticipation of the Milburn NEET review being published next week, a review that may signal some welfare changes during the Burnham premiership. Firmer by a few ticks, but off best and failed to breach 87.00 earlier in the session.

What our morning note said

EU Market Open, 9 Nov, 06:36 UTC · what it led with

US President Trump said it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran if negotiations progress, while Secretary of State Rubio said talks have been unproductive.

DXY consolidated after Friday's jobs-driven upside; Antipodeans outperformed, with the NZD aided by the weekend's election result.

Headlines that moved markets

FX headlines from our feed, and what the market did next.

Iranian President Pezeshkian says the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue, ISNA reports.

EUR/USD+0.1%

ECB policymakers see a December rate hike followed by a pause; New ECB staff estimates show the rise in bond yields cutting growth by a cumulative 100bps and inflation by 90bps in 2027-28 vs the September baseline, according to reports, citing sources.

EUR/USD−0.1%

ECB President Lagarde (Q&A) says policymakers believe they are in a good position to wait for incoming information. The situation they are in could have warranted a hike.

EUR/USD+0.1%

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed relatively contained awaiting updates on the AI, geopolitical and policy fronts

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