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[MARKET ANALYSIS] FX quiet, GBP unreactive thus far as election results pass through

The FX markets are relatively quiet as the UK election results come in, with GBP/USD reacting mildly to a softer dollar despite significant political shifts.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at , 20 minutes before this page
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UAE announces that air defence systems are responding to a missile threat

[MARKET ANALYSIS] FX quiet, GBP unreactive thus far as election results pass through

[CALENDAR ADDITION] US President Trump is to deliver remarks at 12:00EDT/17:00BST from the Rose Garden

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed income steady with US NFP ahead

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  • DXY consolidates in a narrow 98.19-98.26 range, as updates following the volatile end of Thursday’s session remain light. US President Trump announced that the ceasefire remains intact, however, threatening to knock out Iran more violently if no deal is signed fast.
  • EUR/USD oscillates in a 1.1721-1.1735 band. Brief positiveness was seen in the EUR after President Trump cut tariffs to 0%, however contingent on the basis that the EU deliver its side of the deal by July 4th, or else tariffs will jump to much higher levels.
  • GBP/USD has benefited thus far from the slightly softer dollar, as votes get counted and results pass through from the local elections. Thus far, it has been a horrid time for Labour, losing 104 seats and 3 councils to No Overall Control. On the other hand, Reform is yet to lose a seat and has gained 149 seats. In terms of PM Starmer’s future, the Hartlepool Labour MP has called for the PM's resignation after losing to NOC, while The Times reported that UK MP Miliband told the PM he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure.
  • USD/JPY nears the 157.00 handle, as talks of FX intervention calm with Japanese markets fully open and as markets look ahead to US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s visit to Japan.
  • Antipodeans trade muted as the risk tone remains subdued.
Context

The most pressing issue for GBP seems to be the volatility surrounding Labour's seat losses, which raises questions about party leadership and future policy direction. Overall, the market appears to be in a consolidation phase, awaiting further developments in both UK politics and broader geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding US-Iran relations.

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