[MARKET ANALYSIS] GBP outperforms on Chancellor speculation, USD and NOK firm in tandem with oil prices, NZD lacks demand on New Zealand holiday

Mixed performance across G10s with most currencies lower against the Greenback (ex. GBP/NOK given oil/yield moves.)
GBP is the best performer after reporting over the weekend suggested unofficial UK PM candidate Burnham was eyeing right-leaning Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood as potential Chancellor. The Sun reported Mahmood “is meant to have done a deal with Burnham”. Mahmood has previously defended efforts to reduce the amount spent on welfare, and is known for a right-leaning stance on immigration. Though these updates are speculative at the moment, Sterling has attracted buyers and is one of the only G10 currencies positive against the Buck. GBP/USD +0.1%, EUR/GBP -0.1%.
USD is unchanged/modestly firmer and either side of the 99.00 mark. No US-specific newsflow over the weekend, just Geopolitics as explained below. Set to be a busy week of Labour market data, today sees the release of S&P/ISM manufacturing PMIs, Tuesday sees JOLTs Job Openings, ADP weekly payrolls on Wednesday, Challenger layoffs on Thursday, and then NFP on Friday. ING writes, “Should the jobs data stay supportive and price pressures through the ISM surveys remain intense, markets can probably shift towards pricing one full 25bp Fed rate hike this year. That compares to +17bp of tightening priced currently.”
NOK is being helped by energy benchmarks with Brent Aug’26 +3% after NYT reported Trump sent tougher terms to Iran regarding the peace framework, Tasnim outlined that Iran could propose changes to the MoU, while both sides exchanged fire over the weekend. USD/NOK -0.2%, NOK/SEK +0.5%.
Aussie lacks direction after mixed Chinese PMI data overnight, while Kiwi lacks demand with domestic participants absent amid a market holiday. AUD/NZD +0.4%, AUD/USD U/C, NZD/USD -0.5%.