[MARKET ANALYSIS] Global equites under pressure amid rising bond yields and energy prices, with two supertankers reportedly hit in Hormuz
- European bourses are underwater on Tuesday, Euro Stoxx 50 (-0.3%), as the continued rise in global bond yields weigh on equities. The upside in energy prices isn't helping either, with the latest that two supertankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz. These confluence of factors (rising yields and energy prices) have constantly been seen throughout the Iran war, which has resulted in European underperformance.
- Sectors have a negative bias. Energy, unsurprisingly, tops the sector pile. Optimised Personal Care and Chemicals round out the sector leaders. To the downside is Travel & Leisure, with Financial Services and Basic Resources completing the sector laggards.
- Plenty of pharmaceutical stories this morning. Starting with AstraZeneca (-1.4%): 1) its Tagrisso+Orpathys demonstrated highly clinically meaningful improvement in lung cancer patients, 2) acquired worldwide rights to develop and commercialise Zegfrovy, and 3) Enhertu has been approved in the EU for 1L HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer. For Novartis (+4.2%), the Co. announced that its remibrutinib significantly reduces relapse rates and shows favourable safety profile in Phase III RMS trials.
- Other key movers include: UK homebuilders, as Nationwide House Price Index printed at 1.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.1%); Air Liquide (+2.6%), FT reports of Elliott building a stake in the Co.; Partners Group (-7.5%), H1 revenue missed and its CEO steps down into an investment role; Reckitt Benckiser (+4.4%), upgraded at JPMorgan, and its Mead Johnson unit won a federal case regarding its baby formula.
- US equity futures are also underpressure this morning, in line with its European peers. Focus will be on Dell and Palo Alto earnings after-hours.
Subscribers had this at 08:38. Published here 08:58.
Tour the PlatformEpisodes in which tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is attacked have followed a recognisable sequence: an immediate premium builds into crude via freight, insurance and supply-disruption risk, energy names outperform while the broader tape sells off, and the duration of the move has historically hinged on whether shipping actually halts or merely reroutes. The distinguishing variable in past episodes of this kind has been escalation versus containment: incidents that stop at vessel strikes have tended to fade from the oil price over subsequent sessions, while those drawing in state actors or closing the strait have produced sustained re-ratings of energy and sustained pressure on yield-sensitive equities. The combination at work here, rising bond yields alongside rising energy, is the least friendly pairing for European bourses, since the region imports its energy and its equity multiples carry duration exposure at the same time; this is why European underperformance has been the recurring pattern through comparable conflict episodes rather than a surprise. The pharma idiosyncrasies, trial data and an activist stake report, are moving names on their own news and are separable from the macro tape. What bears watching is confirmation of the tanker reports and any response from the states involved, whether crude holds its bid into the US session, and whether the yield move extends, since the two together are what has historically turned a risk-off morning into a trend rather than a session.
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