[MARKET ANALYSIS] Global equities rebound, supported by lower energy prices while NKE suffers after revenue missed and forecasts FY sales decline

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US Daily Equity Opening News - VLYR & TWLO to join SPX, MRNA to join NDX; AMZN seeks offload and leaseback NVDA chips; SSNLF seeks higher 2027 HBM4 pricing; CMCSA, DIS to cut jobs; NKE slides after revenue miss/weak outlook; RTX wins USD 24bln contract

UK DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (Sep) 3.3% (Prev. 3.1%)

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Global equities rebound, supported by lower energy prices while NKE suffers after revenue missed and forecasts FY sales decline

Moody's says France's ability to tackle key policy difficulties despite political fragmentation is a key factor for the resolution of the negative outlook

French President Macron spoke with US President Trump about energy and fuel prices, the Elysee says

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  • European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are firmer across the board as they pare back some of Thursday's losses. A pullback in energy prices seems to be supporting equities, with recent Reuters reporting that France is proposing to release 50mln barrels of diesel from Europe and 50mln barrels of crude oil across IEA members, further weighing on the crude complex.
  • Sectors highlight the clear positive bias. Tech leads sectors higher, with Construction and Travel & Leisure following suit. Energy is the only sector in the red.
  • Key movers include: IG Group -21.1%, sees Q3 total revenue falling 14% Y/Y; JD Wetherspoon +7.8%, LFL sales rose 8.6%, helped by the warm summer weather; Volvo Cars -2.6%, removes its FY26 volume and cash flow outlook due to a challenging china market and slower-than-expected US recovery; Stellantis +4.4%, reports YTD sales of +3% Y/Y; Julius Baer +3.0%, announces a CHF 600mln share buyback programme.
  • US equity futures are also higher, with outperformance in the NQ. Focus was on Nike earnings after hours, in which shares fell 8.6% in extended US trading after revenue missed expectations, and the company forecast a FY sales decline, with weakness in Greater China, sportswear and the Jordan Brand, while restructuring plans and further layoffs added to concerns despite an earnings beat. The poor results also had an effect on its European peers before climbing amid the upbeat risk tone.

Context

This is a broad risk-on session built on two established transmission channels: a softening crude complex easing input-cost and inflation pressure across equity sectors, and a stock-specific earnings shock confined largely to the consumer complex. Coordinated stock releases of the kind reported here have historically weighed on crude at announcement but faded as a driver once the physical volumes and cadence became clear; past episodes show the market distinguishing sharply between headline barrels and actual drawdown, with the curve structure and refining margins the cleaner tells than flat price. The sector pattern is the familiar inverse one, energy lagging while duration-sensitive tech leads, a configuration that has tended to persist only while the energy move looks disinflationary rather than demand-driven. On Nike, weakness concentrated in Greater China and Jordan Brand is a continuation of a multi-quarter pattern rather than a new development, and the read-across to European athleisure and luxury peers has in prior instances been sharp initially and then partially retraced once the stock-specific element is separated from the China demand signal. Guidance withdrawals of the kind seen at Volvo Cars, citing China and the US recovery, have historically invited scrutiny of peer China exposure rather than standing alone. The next tells are follow-through in crude after the proposed release details, and whether Nike's after-hours loss holds into the cash session given the supportive tape.

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