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[MARKET ANALYSIS] New WTD highs for fixed as we await an Iranian response

The fixed income markets have risen to week-to-date highs, underpinned by a positive geopolitical backdrop tied to expected Iranian responses.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] New WTD highs for fixed as we await an Iranian response

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  • A modestly firmer session for fixed benchmarks, driven higher by a pullback in energy this morning on a handful of constructive geopolitical updates ahead of the expected Iranian response, via Pakistan, to the US proposal.
  • Updates that lifted the benchmarks from near-enough unchanged this morning to gains of a handful of ticks in USTs, but pertinently to a new WTD high of 111-01+. Bunds were similarly bid at the time, got to 126.12, also a new WTD peak, posting gains of 42 ticks at the time.
  • Since, the benchmarks have pulled back modestly from the above peaks but remain in the green by a few ticks into an afternoon that is likely to be dominated once again by geopolitical updates, but the docket is also packed with data and Fed speak.
  • For Gilts, they gapped higher by 31 ticks to a 87.70 session high, driven by the above geopolitical move being in full swing at the time. Gilts have also waned from best and currently hold onto gains of c. 10 ticks. Voting in the UK's local elections is now underway, polls close at 22:00BST. Thereafter, a drip feed of results will occur throughout the night and well into Friday, the results of which could spark the formal start of a leadership challenge against PM Starmer, in the days and weeks ahead. Full Newsquawk preview available. 
Context

As energy prices have cooled, USTs and Bunds benefitted significantly, suggesting that traders are positioning for a potential easing of tensions. However, with local elections in the UK underway and Fed commentary looming, staying tuned for further developments is crucial as they may shift market sentiment.

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