[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices gained after Trump rejected Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz, but expects talks to resume this week

Threats to Hormuz transit have been a recurring tail in crude markets, and the pattern in past episodes is that price responds less to actual closure than to the implied probability of it, transmitted through war-risk insurance premia, tanker availability and re-routing costs rather than through physical flow disruption that rarely materialises. Rejection of a reopening proposal with talks expected to resume within days fits the familiar negotiating-posture template: escalation in rhetoric, continuation in dialogue, with the risk premium ebbing and rebuilding on each headline. The dated structure of the quoted contracts matters here, since prompt supply risk tends to concentrate in nearby spreads while the back of the curve carries the geopolitical overlay. The follow-ons that have historically mattered are whether tanker traffic and insurance rates actually move, whether the Houthi dimension broadens from sporadic strikes to sustained pressure on Gulf infrastructure, and whether the next round of talks is confirmed. The metals side is a separate story: gold and silver selling off alongside copper on higher yields and hawkish repricing is the standard pattern when the rate channel dominates the haven bid, with silver's outsized move reflecting its higher beta to the complex.