[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices get some mild reprieve after the recent selling pressure that was triggered by US-Iran peace hopes

WTI/Brent: WTI Dec'26 +0.1% / Brent Jan'27 +0.5%

• Oil prices get some mild reprieve from the recent selling pressure after declining again yesterday amid continued optimism regarding US-Iran peace talks and with a report claiming Iran agreed to US demands to reduce its highly enriched uranium levels, although there was some pushback from Iran's top security official Rezaei, who stated that US claims of ongoing Iran negotiations and a Qatar meeting are false.

Gold: +0.3%

• Gradually rebounded from the prior day's trough but remains firmly beneath the USD 4,100/oz level after sliding alongside the recent dollar strength and firmer-than-expected CPI data.

Copper: +1.1%

• Clawed back some of its previous losses but with the rebound contained amid the mixed risk appetite.

Geopolitical premium unwind of this kind, where crude sells off on reported progress in US-Iran diplomacy, has followed a recognisable sequence in past episodes: the initial move prices the prospect of sanctions relief and returning barrels, then stalls as the gap between headline optimism and a verifiable deal becomes apparent. The Iranian official's denial of the reported talks is the standard complication, and historically such pushback from the security establishment has mattered more than statements from negotiating channels, since enrichment concessions require domestic sign-off. The distinction worth drawing is between a durable agreement that puts Iranian supply back into balances and a negotiating posture that merely trims the risk premium; the former moves spreads and the curve structure, the latter tends to fade. Gold's inability to reclaim the round-number level cited, on the back of dollar strength and a firm CPI print, fits the established pattern where the metal trades as a function of the dollar and real-rate expectations rather than as a pure haven in these episodes. Copper's partial rebound alongside mixed risk appetite leaves it tracking the broader growth and China sentiment complex rather than the geopolitical tape. The tell for the next leg is whether follow-on reports confirm any formal meeting or agreed framework, since in comparable stretches the premium has rebuilt quickly when talks stall.